Sanaa, Yemen – Mansour Saleh, a 25-year-old history graduate from Sana’a, has been following political and military developments in Syria.

“Shocking,” “mysterious” and “unexpected” were some of the words he used to describe what happened in the country this month.

this Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad falls In early December, millions of Yemenis began to wonder what lay ahead for their country.

Some say the collapse of Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels – who control Sana’a and much of northern and western Yemen – could be the region’s “next surprise”.

“My friends have different views. Some call me and are happy about the fall of the Syrian regime, while others are sad about the situation. We are a highly divided society,” Saleh said .

Weep for the fall of Damascus

Assad’s defeat is a personal feeling for Houthi supporters, who see themselves as part of a broader Iran-led “axis of resistance” against Israel and the United States.

Under Assad, Syria is considered a key part of the axis and a route for arms transfers between Iran, Iraq and Lebanon.

Abdulrahman Ali, 40, of Sanaa, said the fall of Syria’s former regime was a “huge loss”.

“When I saw the news that Damascus had been captured by Turkish-backed Syrian armed groups, I cried. Personally, I don’t care about Bashar. What matters is the continued strength of the axis of resistance,” Ali told Al Jazeera TV station.

Houthis, who Armed takeover of Sana’a Part of Iran’s “axis of resistance” that forced the internationally recognized government from power in September 2014 and 2015, it includes the Iraqi Islamic Resistance, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces and the Lebanese Hezbollah. The former Syrian government was also considered part of the Axis.

The Houthi takeover has sparked a war as the ousted government and regional allies, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, try to wrest control of Yemen.

A UN-sponsored ceasefire halted fighting in April 2022, but control remains fragmented among different groups, including the Houthis, the Yemeni government and the Southern Transitional Council in the south and east.

Now, Ali and other Yemeni people who support the Houthi armed forces say that war in Yemen is likely to break out again.

“The current situation in Syria could tempt the anti-Ansar Allah group to launch a war,” he said, using the Houthis’ official name. “This will plunge us into a new cycle of violence.”

Mohammed Ali Houthi, a senior member of the Houthi Supreme Political Council in Sana’a, said in a television interview on December 12 that the Houthi leadership is not afraid of renewed fighting.

He added that the Houthis were ready if “aggression” into Yemen resumed, a term used by the Houthis to describe attacks by forces fighting them.

“The Yemeni people do not care about threats,” Houthi added. “Any foolish act committed by Israel’s enemies against Yemen will trigger (military) action by the Yemeni armed forces.”

“End Iran’s presence”

On the other side of the divide in Yemen are the millions who oppose the Houthis, who see Assad’s fall as a victory for freedom and a defeat for tyranny.

“The Syrian people finally get justice,” said Faisal Mohammed, a 39-year-old teacher in Taiz. Taiz is largely controlled by anti-Houthi forces and has suffered for years from a siege by the rebel group. “Assad’s fall gives us hope that the Arab world can escape oppression.”

Faisal Mohammed sees events in Syria as a message to the Houthis.

“The Assad dynasty’s rule collapsed after 54 years… No matter how long the Houthis last, they will face the same fate.”

With support from Iran over the past decade, including weapons The Houthis have fought numerous battles with pro-government forces in Yemen and have tightened their control over large swaths of the country.

The group appears militarily and politically secure, and Saudi Arabia has been looking for a way out of Yemen for years and at times appeared close to a deal with the Houthis. On the other hand, the anti-Houthi camp has often appeared weak and divided, with many anti-Houthi Yemenis disappointed by the failures of their representatives.

In fact, it seems that the Yemeni government has to tacitly allow some form of transaction Cooperate with the Houthis or be frozen by Saudi Arabia.

However, events in the wider region, including the general weakening of Iran and its allies over the conflict with Israel, have given many in the anti-Houthi camp hope that things have changed.

“Hezbollah has suffered huge loss Falling into Israeli hands, the Assad regime was eliminated. There is nothing Iran can do,” Faisal Mohammad said. “Therefore, the Houthis are likely to suffer a similar fate, which means that Iran’s presence in Yemen will be uprooted. “

Mohammed Abdo, a Yemeni journalist based in Taiz who focuses on politics and war, told Al Jazeera the fight to oust the Houthis will be “challenging.”

“The military power and strength of the Houthis is huge. They have thousands of fighters and an arsenal of weapons,” he said.

“However, the collective efforts of the Yemeni government and its regional and international allies may hasten the collapse of the Houthis.”

a cautionary tale

For some Yemenis, however, Assad’s fall serves as a warning more than anything else.

“Syria shows us that overthrowing a dictator is not the end of the story,” said Yunis Saleh, a shopkeeper in Sana’a. “What matters is what happens next. If peace is not achieved in Syria, we will face the same endless cycle of violence.”

This sentiment is echoed by war-weary Yemenis, regardless of their political affiliation. For them, Assad’s fall is a reminder of the need for a comprehensive solution to Yemen’s decade-long crisis.

The war between the Saudi-backed Yemeni government and the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels has caused a humanitarian disaster.

World Health Organization (WHO) explain In March this year, the conflict in Yemen entered its tenth year, and more than half of the country’s population is in urgent need of assistance.

An estimated 17.8 million people are in need of health assistance, 50% of whom are children; 4.5 million people have been displaced; and the United Nations says more than 3,700 schools have been damaged or repurposed.

“By peace or by force”

Abdulsalam Mohammed, director of the Abad Research Center in Yemen, told Al Jazeera that the Houthis’ actions in waterways around Yemen, ostensibly to attack ships in solidarity with Gaza Palestinians under Israeli attack, have resulted in aroused serious concern of the international community. isolation, and air strikes led by the United States and Britain.

The Houthis also launched missile and drone attacks against Israel, leading to Israeli attacks in Yemen.

In 2021, the Houthis were removed from the US terrorist list. re-added to it last January.

“The national, regional and international community have all taken the decision to end the Houthi rule in Yemen, whether by peace or force,” Abdulsalam Mohammed said. “Time will tell how this will be achieved.”

Abdulsalam Mohammed also believes that this trend away from the Houthis extends to the Gulf region.

“Houthi drones and missiles are a constant threat to Gulf oil-producing countries,” Abdulsalam Mohammed said. “So when there is an opportunity to weaken the Houthis, the Gulf takes advantage of it. Likewise, Opponents of Yemen’s Houthis will prioritize a military solution as the group’s collapse threatens.”

Abdul Salam Mohammed said the failure of Syria’s “axis of resistance” and its losses in Lebanon could also pave the way for the collapse of the Houthis in Yemen.

“The Houthis are always looking for new allies, such as Russia,” he said. “However, this does not prevent the collapse of Hezbollah or the fall of Assad’s rule from being repeated in Yemen.”

“This is a perfect opportunity for the Yemeni government to regain control of provinces lost to the Houthis during the past few years of war.”

But this may be easier said than done. There are few signs that anti-Houthi forces are preparing for a major offensive.

The Houthis control some of Yemen’s most densely populated areas, but the region is mostly mountainous and easier to defend than the flat terrain that dominated the Syrian opposition’s pre-Fall campaign in Damascus. The Houthis still enjoy the support of many influential tribes in Yemen, especially those around Sanaa, who are crucial to regaining control of the capital.

Saleh, a history graduate from Sana’a, described the atmosphere in Yemen as currently calm, but added that it “could explode at any moment.”

“The Houthis are waiting for a life-and-death battle, while their opponents are still hesitant to launch a war,” Saleh said. “It could start at any time, but its end is uncertain.”