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The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow entrance to the Persian Gulf, has once again become a hotbed of tension as Iran prepares to launch a military exercise that could open fire on a route crucial to global maritime traffic.
Iran has warned ships that it will conduct a live-fire drill on Sunday and Monday in the strait, through which a fifth of all oil traded passes through the narrow corridor between the Islamic Republic and Oman.
The US military’s Central Command issued its own warning early Saturday, telling Tehran that any “unsafe and unprofessional behavior in the vicinity of US forces, regional partners or commercial ships increases the risk of collision, escalation and destabilization.”
Here’s what you need to know about the exercise, the US warning, what caused the tensions and what could happen next in the Strait of Hormuz.
A key waterway for global shipping
The Strait of Hormuz resembles a bend when viewed from above. His narrowest point is only 33 kilometers wide.
It flows from the Persian Gulf into the Gulf of Oman. From there ships can travel to the rest of the world.
While Iran and Oman have their own territorial waters in the strait, it is viewed as an international waterway that can be navigated by all ships. The United Arab Emirates, home to skyscraper-packed Dubai, is also close to the waterway.
The strait has long been important for trade
The Strait of Hormuz has historically been important for trade, with ceramics, ivory, silk and textiles moving from China through the region. In the modern supertanker era, the narrow strait proved deep and wide enough to allow oil to pass through.
Although there are pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE that can avoid the passage, the US Energy Information Administration says that “most volumes passing through the strait have no alternative means of exiting the region”.
The vast majority of oil and gas moving through the strait goes to markets in Asia. They have threats to the route by the jump in global energy prices in the past, including during The 12-day war that Israel launched against Iran in June.
Iran is planning a drill that could enter the trade route
A notice sent to seafarers over the radio on Thursday warned that Iran plans to conduct “naval targeting” in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday and Monday.
The coordinates provided by the message puts the drill potentially entering what is known as the Traffic Separation Scheme — 3.2 kilometersagaina wide two-lane system where ships entering the Persian Gulf go north and ships leaving the Gulf of Oman go south.
The European Union has designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization but says it opposes military action against the regime as a US Navy battle group arrives in the region.
That northern path is within coordinates of drill. Although Iran has not provided other public details about the drills, they are likely to be involved the state paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.
The Guard operates a fleet of small ships for fast raids in the strait which it regularly has tense encounters with the US Navy.
US issues warning over Iranian exercise
Early on Saturday, the US military’s Central Command issued a stern warning to Iran and the Revolutionary Guard over the exercise.
While recognizing “Iran’s right to operate professionally in international airspace and waters,” he warned against interfering with or threatening U.S. warships or commercial ships passing by.
The command, which oversees the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet based in Bahrain, said it “will not tolerate unsafe (watchdog) actions” that could involve aircraft or vessels getting too close to, or pointing weapons at, U.S. warships.
The command added that “the US military has the deadliest and most lethal force in the world.”
High tensions due to suppression of protests in Iran, nuclear program
US President Donald Trump threatened to launch a military attack on Iran after his bloody suppression of protests across the country.
He set two red lines – the killing of peaceful protesters and Iran launching a wave of mass executions of those arrested.
In recent days, he has also included fate Iran’s nuclear program. The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and accompanying guided-missile destroyers are now in the Arabian Sea where they could launch a strike if Trump requests it.
Iran has warned it could launch its own pre-emptive strike or target US interests across the Middle East and Israel.
While the 12-day war saw Iran launch ballistic missiles and Israel target its stockpiles, Tehran maintains an arsenal of short- and medium-range missiles that could hit the surrounding Gulf Arab states.
