Google recently announced The arrival of willowreducing the quantum chip Error tendencies Compared with some of its predecessors, this is a milestone in the effort to bring quantum computing into the real world, and it may change the way we think about cryptocurrency risks in the years to come.

Willow’s speed was almost incomprehensible— According to Googlewhich can perform calculations in five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers a billion years to solve. Seventeen is 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.

But so far, the accuracy of quantum computing has also been a big problem. Quantum is like a garden hose running at full speed with no one holding it: the water flows quickly, but its aim is not always accurate. In theory, Willow’s combination of speed and accuracy could give hackers the tools to unlock the algorithms upon which Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are based.

For now, qubits and Bitcoin can coexist

If you don’t know (and not many people do) what quantum computing (qubits) are made of, Tim Hollebeek, industry technology strategist at security firm DigiCert, has a simplified way of thinking about the breakthrough. He said imagine a maze and how a classical computer would try to navigate through it from start to finish. It tries one possible path at a time. “A quantum computer will be able to try every path simultaneously, resulting in faster solutions,” Hollebeck said.

And the willow tree May not be ready for real-world applications However, Willow’s speed and accuracy will help pave the way for larger-scale quantum computers.

“Part of the problem with qubits is that they are unstable and generate errors. This chip has significant error correction capabilities that can alleviate some of the qubit problems,” Hollebeek said.

This means that improved chips based on Willow’s breakthrough will be able to help hackers target cryptocurrencies – but at least for now, this concern is only theoretical.

“Theoretically, if a quantum computer could be developed with enough qubits, a quantum computer could solve this problem much faster and pose a threat to today’s cryptographic algorithms,” Holleback said. But he added that if you have encryption Currency, then the practical reason for breathing easier today is simple. “It doesn’t exist today, and it’s not expected to be there for at least the next five, 10, 15 years,” he said. The fastest five-year timeline depends on some unforeseen technological breakthrough.

Cryptocurrency’s decade-long lead

A Google spokesperson told CNBC that Willow and cryptocurrencies can coexist. “The Willow chip cannot break modern cryptography,” he said, adding that Google also believes quantum technology with this capability is still years away.

In fact, even if Willow was able to significantly increase the speed at which cryptocurrencies are cracked, quantum computing would still require several times the age of the universe, according to Park Feierbach, an expert in decentralized finance technology and CEO of Radiant Commons. chip to do this. According to NASA, the universe is 13.7 billion years old.

“There’s almost no reason to deploy Willow on this technology in a way that makes tractable progress possible. It’s still going to take too long,” Feuerbach said.

“It is estimated that it will take us at least 10 years to crack RSA, and will require approximately 4 million physical qubits to do so,” a Google spokesperson said. RSA is an encryption system used for cryptocurrencies.

For reference, Google’s processors now scale around 100 physical qubits.

“Quantum Safe” Algorithm

A Google spokesperson emphasized that the timeline for quantum breakthroughs has been widely shared and Willow has not changed it.

“Google is on track to follow the roadmap we planned,” he said. The spokesperson added: “The security community has long been aware of the projected timeline for breaking asymmetric encryption and has been working to define standards and collaborate to implement new algorithms to protect against attacks by both classical and quantum computers.”

In fact, Holleback said the crypto industry is working on “quantum-safe” encryption.

Hollebeek said that the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has released a variety of quantum security algorithms that can protect against future quantum computer attacks, and NIST has set a timetable for the government and industry to deploy these algorithms to ensure the security of the country. . and trade secrets.

“Google and other industry leaders support standardization and experiment with algorithms in draft form,” a Google spokesperson said.

Although quantum is very efficient at unlocking algorithms (based on traditional cryptographic equations that factor huge prime numbers), it is not infallible, which is where the hope of quantum-safe encryption lies.

“They’re really good at some things, but not everything,” Holleback said, noting that breaking with traditional asymmetric cryptography happens to be one of the things they’re really good at. “Fortunately, they are not good at other mathematical puzzles, and asymmetric cryptography can be updated to use these puzzles instead of factoring,” he said.

Tachisay, An assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Massachusetts Amherst said existing cryptography must evolve to be qubit-resistant. “As the potential of quantum computers to break existing cryptography becomes increasingly concerning, new cryptocurrencies could be developed that are specifically designed to be quantum secure. These new quantum cryptography will integrate PQC, cryptography that is resistant to the computational power of quantum computers Algorithms,” Raza said.

Jeremy Allaire, co-founder, chairman and CEO of digital currency company Circle, said in an interview with CNBC last week that the risks do exist, but his view of the future remains focused on what is about to evolve. On opportunity. “The bottom line is, quantum encryption means you can more easily unlock things that the old locks were broken on, but you can also create better locks,” Allaire said. “So quantum encryption — this quantum actually It will be a huge turbocharger for cryptographic computing, cryptographic applications, and cryptocurrencies.”

Raza believes that quantum computing will ultimately bring about broader changes that transcend cryptography. Breakthroughs will make devices and software faster, revolutionize artificial intelligence, and improve data security with ultra-secure encryption methods. Raza said there will be advancements in computing, healthcare, energy and security in everyday life, so while these changes are still developing, we shouldn’t think about the cryptocurrency industry in isolation. “They could change the industry,” he said.