While trade between India and the US is good news and should be celebrated, everyone involved should take a deep breath and calm down, said adviser and expert on Asian governments and markets Evan A Feigenbaum. He said the situation was “totally unsustainable” and that a trade deal had to happen. “I was surprised it didn’t happen sooner,” Feigenbaum said.

This comes after India and the United States agreed a trade deal under which Washington would cut reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18 percent, and New Delhi agreed to stop buying Russian oil.

“If you care deeply about the US-India relationship and are invested in it, then for the word to get out, as it did, is bad news. That’s good and we should celebrate that,” he said, crediting newly appointed US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor for his role in setting the tone between the nations and moving the deal forward.

Feigenbaum said that while 18 percent is better than 50 percent, it should never have been 50 percent in the first place, he said, so India should be cautious. Trump has in the past used or threatened tariffs not just for trade disputes, but for anything he doesn’t seem to like. “In short, tariff ‘deals’ have collapsed because he changes his mind or layers on new issues. Don’t believe me? Go talk to some South Koreans. Then ask a few Canadians,” he said.

However, 18% is a “soft landing” for India because it gives them a relative edge over competitors, with most ASEAN countries hovering around 19-20%. He also urged everyone not to sleep on the China factor. China has no real chance of bringing tariffs back to previous levels, but it really doesn’t have to, Feigenbaum said, adding that Beijing just needs to move closer to the levels of ASEAN nations.

He also questioned how India, which had good exports of $41.5 billion and services imports of $41.8 billion from the US in 2024, will buy $500 billion of “anything from the US anytime soon”? He said $500 billion of the $83 billion seemed like a stretch.

The expert added that the Indian government is also unlikely to “make explicit any commitments related to Russian oil”.

“Ninth, and most importantly, those of us who care about US-India relations have worked hard, fought, and spent years believing in it—I should be happier than I was a few months ago. But please, let’s not talk as if the last six months never happened or somehow just went ‘poof’ in a magical jester and said a haunted fairy. The relationship has become politicized again. She said that after so much work to ensure that relations with third countries they opposed did not sink into relations between Washington and New Delhi, the 25 percent oil penalty was a “bad precedent”.

“I hope the politics gets stronger on both sides. And I hope the trust ceiling hasn’t been lowered as much as I think,” Feigenbaum said, adding that the two nations are in a better place than they have been since last August.

“Modi and Trump should take the win. Props to Gor and his counterparts. But I still think people should take a deep breath and see where we go from here,” he said.

Under the new agreement, the US will reduce reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, while India will eliminate its tariffs and non-tariff barriers against US products.

Trump made the announcement on social media, saying, “Out of friendship and respect for Prime Minister Modi, and at his request, effective immediately, we agreed to a trade agreement between the United States and India, whereby the United States will charge a reduced reciprocal tariff, from 25% to 18%.”

In response, PM Modi said he was delighted that “Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18 percent”. “Many thanks to President Trump on behalf of the 1.4 billion people of India for this wonderful announcement,” he said.

The agreement includes India’s commitment to “also move forward to reduce its tariffs and non-tariff barriers against the United States to zero,” as President Trump stated.

Trump further indicated that India has pledged to increase purchases of US goods, including more than $500 billion of US energy, technology, agriculture, coal and other products.