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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
Can US democracy survive a second Donald Trump presidency? This is not a theoretical question. Trump apparently followed a well-known playbook for turning a liberal democracy into an illiberal one. The latter is a label for a dictatorship – a regime where decisions depend on the will of one person who is largely accountable to no one.
on The Spirit of DemocracyyLarry Diamond of Stanford argues that a liberal democracy consists of free and fair elections, protection of civil and human rights of all citizens equally, and a rule of law that binds all citizens equally. These are the “rules of the game”. But the effectiveness of the rules depends on the constraints of those who temporarily control the state. The most important constraints are the judiciary, political parties, bureaucracy and media. The question is whether this will continue, first while Trump is president and then in the longer term.
In a recent discussion of The New Republic, Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt of Harvard, authors of the How Democracies Dienote that the classic process of “collective abdication” or “institutional suicide” in the face of an authoritarian takeover has gone too far. Trump took over the Republican party. His control of its electoral base has persuaded it to endorse the “big lie” that he won the 2020 election. The Supreme Court decided that a president is immune from criminal prosecution because of his “official acts”, a doctrine that the British jurist Lord. Jonathan Sumption insisted that placed the president above the law, and therefore in effect more like a king than a citizen. At least, we have seen powerful people, like Mark Zuckerbergkneeling before their new ruler.
What are they afraid of? That the president will arm the state machinery against them. That is his intention and the people around him. His nominations strongly suggest that. Also, make plans for replacing bureaucrats with people loyal to Trump outlined by the Heritage Foundation’s “Project 2025”. Such loyalty can be a powerful weapon of autocracy. This will make the bureaucracy obedient to the president instead of the laws they need to enforce.
Timothy Snyder of Yale, an expert on totalitarianism in Europe in the 20th century, described the nominations to head the departments of health, justice and defense, as well as head the intelligence services, as a “decapitation strike”. This is partly because their likely incompetence and depravity undermines the functioning of the state. This is also due to the threat of politicization of the federal government, including the law, against “enemy from within” can do serious damage to democracy.
All of these, Levitsky and Ziblatt add, are classic characteristics of would-be autocrats. They fall under the broad headings of “arresting referees” and “sidelining players”. Among the former are further changes in the judiciary at all levels. Among the latter are attacks of various kinds on independent media organizations, journalists, academic institutions and publishers.
Apart from all this, remember the central project of removing undocumented immigrants. This seems likely to bring many elements of the new approach together. The removal of millions of people would require a massive military operation, massive infiltrations of state and local jurisdictions, the creation of massive detention camps, the suppression of protests and, at the very least, the search of nations. where the evacuees will be dropped off.
Will all this really happen? Maybe. But the combination of such disruption with what is also likely to be more economic turmoil could turn public opinion strongly against Trump, who has vote margin which is only 1.5 percentage points and has never been very popular. While he has passionate supporters, he also has passionate detractors. In addition, if the constitution holds, he only has this term. Overall, his grip on public opinion and his party is likely to weaken from now on. Trump’s abilities as a populist demagogue are extraordinary: it is probably impossible for the party to find a sufficiently charismatic replacement in 2028. His coalition also shows signs of collapse: Christian nationalists and nativists unnatural companions of “tech plutocrats”, such as Elon Musk.
It is possible that any autocratic push by Trump will overreach and create a strong backlash, even among ordinary people. After all, the latter has not yet been affected by it. It takes courage for people to mobilize. But let us hope that the American people will not simply abandon the liberal and enlightened traditions of their country before the attacks of today’s authoritarian and reactionary opponents. But it is now a deeply divided country, where polls show many Americans have abandoned faith in their democracy. If that is not corrected, democracy itself may fail. (See charts.)
An important question today is how far the institutions of liberal democracy, especially those governing elections, will survive. Many of Trump’s henchmen, as well as Trump himself, fear retribution for the “revenge” they seek to exact. This gives them a huge incentive to cheat the electoral rules of the game, with the help of the judiciary.
If they succeed in overturning the US national election, it will be “game over”. The global consequences of that can be devastating. Without the active engagement of a democratic US, the health of the world’s liberal democracies is at risk.
Benjamin Franklin was famous said the US has “a republic if you can keep it”. We may find out soon if possible.
