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The G7 is the “steering committee of the free world”, according to Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser of President Joe Biden. If so, the free world has a problem. Most G7 governments are now so overwhelmed by domestic political problems that they are unable to manage their own countries – let alone the free world.
Consider the political situations of France, Germany, Canada, Japan and South Korea (the latter is not a formal member of the G7, but regularly attends summits). In France, the government recently fell after it failed to pass a budget. A new prime minister is in place but will face the same problems. There is much speculation that Emmanuel Macron will step down as president before the end of his term in 2027.
Germany is heading to elections after the collapse of the “traffic-light” coalition led by Olaf Scholz. Recent elections in Japan saw the ruling Liberal Democratic party lose its majority for the first time since 2009 – with another poll likely next year. on CanadaJustin Trudeau’s nearly decade in power is coming to an end. With his party trailing in the polls, the prime minister is under intense pressure to resign.
the piece of resistance of democratic decline is South Koreawhere President Yoon Suk Yeol’s political position became so desperate that he declared martial law. Popular protests quickly forced him to back down and led to his impeachment.
Outside of the US, the only two G7 countries that can claim to have a stable government in place are the UK and Italy. Britain’s prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, won a majority in this summer’s elections. But his poll ratings are rapidly declining. In fact, especially now Starmer not popular after five months in office longer than any UK prime minister in four decades. Only Italy’s Giorgia Meloni can make a credible claim to watch favorable his voters and the markets.
So what’s wrong with the G7? As always, local context matters. In Japan, corruption scandals have weakened the LDP. Macron and Trudeau are both leaders who have lost their luster after years in office.
But there also seem to be two major factors making it difficult for almost all G7 democracies to maintain stable governments. The first is the decline of the political center and the rise of populist parties. The second is a fiscal squeeze created by slow growth, aging societies, the pandemic, the financial crisis of 2008 and needs for more defense spending.
Populism and financial problems feed each other and make it harder and harder to manage. The French government was brought down after this tried to cut spending and raise taxes to overcome the budget deficit of 6 percent of GDP. Since a large part of the French parliament is in the hands of the far left or the far right, it is very difficult to broker political compromises.
Starmer’s majority in Britain made it possible for his government to do what the French could not – increase taxes, on an effort to balance the books. But the tax hike contributed to Labour’s fall in popularity. The difficulty of finding money in hard times also played a part in the political crises in Canada and Japan.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House is likely to contribute to an atmosphere of political instability throughout the G7. Instead of trying to help the governments of his democratic allies, Trump and his favorite now, Elon Muskseemed to enjoy piling on the pain. Maga Republicans especially like left-of-center leaders like Trudeau, Scholz and Starmer.
Trump went out of his way to humiliate Trudeau, referring to Canada as America’s 51st state and its prime minister as “the governor”. Musk is making headlines across Europe by post on X: “Only the AfD can save Germany.” He also held a well-publicized meeting with Nigel Farage, Britain’s Reform leader – making it clear that he was hoping for Musk’s financial support.
Trump Republicans no longer regard traditional European conservatives as their sister parties. Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the British Tories, and Friedrich Merzthe leader of Germany’s Christian Democrats, could only watch in sadness as Trump and Musk instead helped the radical, nationalist right. Christian Lindner, the leader of Germany’s embattled, pro-business Free Democrats, issued a somber appeal to “Elon”, informing him that the AfD is a “far-right extremist party”. Interestingly, he seems to believe that this will stop Musk.
Merz’s CDU is currently ahead of the AfD in the polls for the German election. But far-right and populist parties across the G7 clearly have a friend in the White House. Musk can help parties like AfD and Reform with publicity and, perhaps, money. But his support can also backfire at times. Nationalist parties like National Rally of France has a strong anti-American tradition and is wary of being seen as tools of rich foreigners.
Trump’s interventions may not ensure that he can install ideological bedfellows around the rest of the G7. Instead he could create a situation where the leaders of many of America’s closest allies regard the US president not as a friend, but as a dangerous political enemy.
