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For months, US pressure on Venezuela has included a buildup of military force in the region, threats of military action, along with attacks on alleged drug-trafficking ships near its coast.
However, it remains ambiguous and unclear exactly what the Trump administration’s strategy for Venezuela is, or its plans forate Venezuelan Presidented Nicolás Maduro, say some analysts.
“It’s so frustrating to analyze this policy because we’re not told what the goals are, we’re not told whether the ambiguity is intentional, strategic or not,” said Will Freeman, fellow for Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
“There is very little way to even determine who can answer those questions.”
And, more importantly, he asked Freeman, “Does (Trump) even know what he wants at the end of this?”
At various times, Trump appeared to offer a competing narratives, Freeman said. He rejected the idea of regime change, gave Maduro an ultimatum to leave the country, suggested that a diplomatic solution could be found with him, and then later instructed himis a narco-terrorist.
Freeman suggested that these differing views on Maduro — and how to deal with him — reveal Trump’s ambivalence about the Venezuelan president and his ultimate fate.
‘The messages were very mixed’
While the ultimate goal appears to be for Maduro to eventually leave the country, it’s unclear exactly how the U.S. intends to facilitate that, some observers say.
“The messages were very mixed,” said Daniel Batlle, an adjunct fellow at the Hudson Institute whose work focuses on Latin America and the Caribbean. “I think there was room for doubt as to what kinds of pressure the US was willing to use.”
Some Tuesadministration – chief among them US Secretary of State Marco Rubio – who see Venezuela primarily through the prism of regime change, said Geoff Ramsey, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Adrienne Arsht Latin American Center.
But there are others looking for a more diplomatic solution and an opportunity to advance America’s energy, migration and broader geopolitical interests there, he said.
“It’s hard to talk about one goal in Venezuela because I think there are different factions in the administration that have different and sometimes conflicting goals,” Ramsey said.
The ambiguity, while unintentional, points to a lack of shared vision and coordination among this administration, he said.
‘Throwing everything against the wall’
If intentional, it may be a way to destabilize Maduro so he doesn’t know what the U.S. wants and “fear him enough until he leaves or does whatever” the U.S. says, Freeman said.
“It could also be that (the Trump administration doesn’t have) a strong case to make to the American people, so they’re kind of throwing everything at the wall and seeing what’s there.”
After a series of attacks on alleged ‘narcotics smugglers’ near Venezuela, the US has deployed its largest aircraft carrier in the region. For The National, CBC’s Eli Glasner explains why President Trump’s show of force may go far beyond the fight against drugs.
Since early September, US troops have carried out at least 21 attacks on suspected drug vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, killing at least 83 people, as Trump escalated a military build-up against Maduro’s government.
This included the deployment of thousands of soldiers and sailors aboard US ships in the region, as well as authorizing the CIA to implement covert operations in the country. Trump also claimed that Venezuela’s airspace should be considered closed.
However, Trump recently told reporters at the White House that targeted ground strikes would begin “very soon.”
Trump weighed options, includingng attacks on Venezuelan territory, for aca campaign his administration calls an effort to stop the supply of illegal drugs that have killed Americans. Maduro has denied any connection to the illegal drug trade.
Trump has repeatedly accused Venezuela of being a hub for the fentanyl trade, but data shows Mexico is the main source of the deadly drug. While cocaine comes to the US from Venezuela, experts say it probably amounts to to about 10 percent, with the majority coming from nearby Colombia.
Some have suggested Trump targeted the country because it has the world’s largest oil reserves. In a letter to OPEC, Maduro himself accused the US of trying to “seize” that resource. However, the administration has repeatedly stated that the main problem with Venezuela is its alleged drug exports.
Earlier this week, a group of Democratic and Republican senators filed a resolution twould block US military action against Venezuela without congressional approval. Meanwhile, strikes against alleged drug traffickers face possible war crimes charges if they continue attack reportedly killed survivors.
The White House confirmed that it had authorized a second airstrike on an alleged Venezuelan drug ship in September, but denied that it had ordered the killing of everyone on board, which would be considered a war crime.
Experts have repeatedly questioned the legality of the American campaign in the southern Caribbean and the Pacific.
But Batlle, meanwhile, wondered what effect this had on Maduro.
“I don’t see that attacks on ships are convincing for Maduro,” he said. “I think it was reasonable to think that the deployment of the US military in the Caribbean and increased pressure through the crackdown on drug traffickers might put some pressure on Maduro, but clearly it will take a lot more.”
Also, if the US is looking for some sort of regime change, it’s not just a matter of removing Maduro and a handful of others his assistants, The mayor said.
‘I have to dismantle the whole system’
“There is a huge network that needs to keep this system in place,” he said, “We’re talking about people inside the regime, inside the military, organized crime groups that operate with the blessing of the regime.
“It’s not just a matter of removing Maduro; you have to dismantle this whole system.”
Meanwhile, Ramsey believes that over the next few days the White House will have to be very clear about what its plan is for Venezuela, after it was revealed that the administration is actively engaged in negotiations with Maduro.
While Trump threatened ground attacks on Venezuela, it is also confirmed that Maduro and Trump spoke on the phone last month.
There have been different stories about the invitation. White House sources in the administration, according to reportsthey say Maduro was given an ultimatum to leave, something he was willing to do, provided he and his family members were granted full legal amnesty. (Trump reportedly declined the offer.)
But Maduro said the invitation was cordial and respectful.
“I think the name of the game here is strategic ambiguity,” Ramsey said. “I think the president wants to win more than anything, and I think he’s flexible about exactly what that looks like.
