Unlock Editor’s Digest for free

Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

Hours after rejecting a U.S.-led proposal for a 21-day truce with Hizbollah in September, Benjamin Netanyahu boasted that he had changed the balance of power in the region in the future. years. Israel’s prime minister recently ordered the execution of Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, signaling that Israel is turning its attention away from the Gaza Strip to step up its offensive against Lebanese militants. By the end of the year, the dynamics of the Middle East had undoubtedly shifted in Israel’s favor.

The Israeli military’s relentless crackdown on Hizbollah forced it into a cease-fire agreement that gave Israel the right to continue its strikes on Lebanon. Iran appears to be the weakest it has been in years. Its “axis of resistance” of Iranian-backed militants, including Hizbollah and Hamas, looks like a tiger on paper. Israeli bombs destroyed most of the Islamic republic’s air defenses in October – the biggest conventional attack on Iran in decades.

The Islamic regime suffered another devastating defeat this month when Syrian rebels overthrew Bashar al-Assad, the dictator it supported during Syria’s civil war. Some 4,000 Iranians were rushed out of the country as Iran lost a critical ally in the Middle Eastern state and a key land link to supply Hizbollah, its most important proxy. Israel may not have had a direct hand in Assad’s dramatic death, but its strikes on Iranian targets in Syria, and in Hezbollahwhich also helped strengthen the regime, smoothing the path of the rebels to Damascus.

Since the intelligence failure of the terrible attack by Hamas on October 7 2023, which killed 1,200 people with 250 hostages, the level of superiority of the Israeli military over its enemies has become clear. Netanyahu’s political fortunes are also changing. After Hamas attack, many predicted the end of his dominance in Israeli politics. However, as strong as ever, his far-right coalition was strengthened by the addition of another party, his poll numbers back to pre-October 7 levels.

Yet Israel’s battlefield victories have come at great costs that will worsen in the coming years. No one should mourn the end of Assad’s brutal regime, nor the weakening of the evil influence of Iran and its proxies. But Israel’s military successes will forever be tarnished by the untold suffering the offensive has brought to millions of people in Gaza and Lebanon.

Israel is facing increasing accusations of committing acts of genocide in Gaza, including a case at the International Court of Justice, in detailed reports by Amnesty and Human Rights Watch and by Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, which Netanyahu has been courting for a long time. Not only the appalling death toll – more than 45,000, according to Palestinian officials – fuels such allegations, but also the siege placed by Israel on the 2.3 million strong Gaza; aid and water restrictions; and the destruction of civilian infrastructure rendering much of the strip uninhabitable.

In issuing an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, the International Criminal Court said there were “reasonable grounds” to believe he bears criminal responsibility for the “war crime of starvation as a means of warfare . . . and other inhuman acts”. Israel’s war and siege is a stain not only on Israel but also on the US, which allows Netanyahu to act with impunity.

After destroying the military capacity of Hamas and neutralizing regional threats to Israel, Netanyahu has no excuse not to end the conflict and agree to a deal to release the remaining hostages. But he and his far-right allies instead appear determined to occupy more territory on different fronts and keep Israel in a perpetual state of conflict. Ultimately, Israel’s security can only be ensured by peace, and it is never in a stronger position to achieve it – if only Netanyahu could see it through.