The longest government shutdown in US history ended last night, after Congress passed a bill that quickly signed the lawfor the re-establishment of state functions and the continuation of normal activities. But one key impact will continue to be felt for mmonths to come.

During the 43-day shutdown, no key economic data was collected and the release of key economic indicators was delayed.

In fact, the White House now says that jobs and inflation data for October may never be released because of the shutdown.

“All of these economic data releases will be permanently distorted, leaving our policymakers at the Fed blindsided at a critical time,” said White House Secretary Caroline Leavitt, referring to the Federal Reserve, America’s central bank.

That lack of data has already cast a cloud of uncertainty over the state of the U.S. economy, meaning businesses and policymakers don’t know for sure what’s going on.

“Our view of the economy is based more on vibrations than on verified information,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at financial services firm Corpay.

He says economists and companies have relied on private sector proxies like credit card data, satellite imagery and surveys.

Schamotta says this fog fell at a crucial time. The U.S.-Canada trade war has sparked deep uncertainty and fierce debate about whether, how, and when tariffs will cause the U.S. economy to slow.

US President Donald Trump said the tariffs do not cause inflation and will help the economy, not hurt it.

But economists say tariffs raise costs, leading to deep uncertainty that weighs on investment and employment.

Without clear, reliable data, people can say that the economy is doing just fine or that inflation is not rising because there have been no reports to contradict them.

“Ultimately, it just leads to a fog of uncertainty onto which you can project anything. It’s like a Rorschach test for macroeconomic understanding,” Schamotta said, referring to a psychological test in which participants describe what they see in various inkblots.

It’s like a Rorschach test for understanding macroeconomics– Karl Schamotta

For example, this week, the head of the White House National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, was grilled by a host on the financial news channel CNBC.

Hassett said he thinks inflation is moving toward the Federal Reserve’s target.

“Even though it’s been rising for five straight months since September?” asked CNBC anchor Carl Quintanilla.

Hassett shrugged it off and pointed to available data going back to January.

“I guess if you look at it since January, there’s been ups and downs and seasonal events. But yeah, it’s been surprising on the downside. People expected it to pick up, but it didn’t,” he said.

Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, tweeted Hassett’s statement, noting that the government has no way of knowing whether inflation has accelerated or not.

“But, but … we don’t collect data while the government is shut down,” he tweeted.

During Trump’s first term as president, it took about eight months for his steel and aluminum tariffs to really bite into the US economy and show up in the data.

In this term, he started imposing tariffs in March – or about eight months ago.

“In the next few months, we are at risk of reaching a point where new data comes out and it shocks the markets so much that we see a broader burst of volatility or negative consequences for the economy,” Schamotta said.

Economists warn that it will take some time for even basic data to bounce back.

Oxford Economics says nearly two dozen key reports have been delayed. It warns that the list will continue to grow as agencies try to catch up.

And that presents at least one urgent political conundrum. The Federal Reserve will have to make a decision on interest rates next month.

The Fed is currently divided over the direction of the US economy. Some members are pushing for further interest rate cuts, while others are calling for caution, worried that inflation could rise again this fall.

The Fed is “still stuck in a data fog,” wrote Nancy Vanden Houten, a leading U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

This fog will hang over the American economy for months to come. It could be another year before economists, businesses and policymakers have reliable data that sheds light on where the economy really stands.