The Centre’s fiscal deficit rose to 52.5% of the full-year target between April and November 2024, with capital spending coming in at 46.2% of the 11 budget estimate .1 billion rupees. While the data released on Tuesday gives hope of an improvement in the Centre’s fiscal performance, there are still concerns that the capex target for FY25 may not be met.

According to official data, the Centre’s fiscal deficit stood at Rs 8.5 billion or 52.5% of the budget target of Rs 16.13 crore at the end of November 2024. This was a 6, 6% lower than the fiscal deficit of Rs 9.1 billion recorded in November 2023.

The Centre’s total revenue stood at Rs 18.94 billion between April and November 2024, which was 59.1% of the budget estimates for the financial year. Of this tax revenue (net at the centre) stood at Rs 14.43 billion and non-tax revenue was Rs 4.27 billion during the period. Non-debt equity income stood at Rs 23,953 crore between April and November this fiscal.

The total expenditure incurred by the Center was Rs 27.41 billion, which is 56.9% of the BE. Of this, Rs 22.27 lakh was revenue expenditure while Rs 5.13 lakh was capital expenditure.

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist and Head – Research and Outreach, ICRA noted that capital expenditure showed a healthy expansion of 21%, albeit on a modest base. However, the Centre’s capex must expand by 65% ​​year-on-year from December 2024 to March 2025 or register a monthly run rate of Rs. 1.5 lakh crore, to meet the FY 2025 BE, which is looking increasingly daunting, he said. “We have the capex target of Rs. 11.1 lakh crore missed by FY25 by a margin of at least Rs 1 lakh crore to 1.5 lakh crore,” he further said.

The expected shortfall in the capex target is expected to offset any shortfall due to divestment and taxes, as well as the impact of recent supplementary demand for subsidies. Accordingly, ICRA expects the fiscal deficit to be marginally lower than the FY25 BE of Rs. 16.1 lakh crore or 4.9% of GDP.