TC Energy Corporation (TRP): A Theory of the Bull Case


We came across one bullish thesis to TC Energy Corporation in the substack of Beat the TSX (BTSX-20) by Beat the TSX-27 Strategy.. In this article, we will summarize the thesis of touches on TRP. TC Energy Corporation stock traded at $59.91 on February 5. TRP’s trailing and forward P/E were 22.59 and 21.64, respectively, according to Yahoo Finance.

Photo by PBF Energy LinkedIn

TC Energy Corporation operates as an energy infrastructure company in North America. TRP delivered a stable and competent quarter in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting the company’s signature focus on disciplined execution and conservative risk management. The results were in line with expectations, with no material surprises, and capital expenditures were targeted at the low end of the $5.5 billion to $6 billion range for 2025, indicating a prudent allocation while preparing for future growth.

Management stated that long-term growth is sustainable beyond 2028, although they remained cautious on expanding guidance further, prioritizing a clear understanding of project returns before committing to longer-term projections. The company’s dividend remains safe, with growth expected at the lower end of 3-5%, enough to keep pace with inflation without over-promising. Operationally, TRP continues to execute projects smoothly, with upcoming initiatives expected to increase spending to around $7 billion per annum by 2028-29, indicating a strong pipeline of opportunities.

Despite this stability, TRP shares are currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.5, a premium that reflects market expectations, and the dividend yield of 4.45% is below the five-year average of 6.02%, prompting a partial reduction in the portfolio to manage risk.

However, the company’s regulated and infrastructure assets remain among the highest quality holdings in North America, offering reliable cash flow and capital discipline. While TRP is not a bargain today, its resilience, operational competence and long-term growth potential make it a cornerstone of BTSX-27, with room for opportunistic accumulation if yields approach 5.5-6.0%. This quarter exemplifies the quiet strength of TC Energy: no flash, just reliable, dependable compositional competence.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis to Valaris Limited (VAL) from Alpha Ark in February 2025, which highlighted the company’s dominant offshore drilling fleet, improved financials after restructuring, increased daily rates and a substantial increase relative to asset replacement value. VAL’s stock price has appreciated approximately 26.29% since our coverage. The Beat the TSX-27 strategy shares a similar outlook, but emphasizes disciplined execution, stable cash flows and conservative growth in regulated energy infrastructure, highlighting TRP’s long-term resilience.



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