Hello, this is Spriha Srivastava, CNBC International Digital Executive Editor, from London. This week, I looked closely at India’s rope walking paths – tariffs in Washington, oil in Moscow and a shaking hand with Beijing. Let’s dive.

The report comes from CNBC’s “Inside India” newsletter this week. Like what you saw? You can subscribe here.

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Imagine: You are attending a dinner with three friends who are struggling with each other. One is fighting with everyone, the other is sliding down your secret notes under the table, and the third is the old madness you’d rather avoid but can’t ignore. Embarrassing, right?

That is where India finds itself. Washington is tariffs, Moscow keeps India’s energy bills a place with cheap oil, and despite bruised ties, Beijing is ready to welcome Prime Minister Narendra Modi to open his arms at the SCO summit in China this week. India’s juggling on the world stage has never seemed more complicated or more important.

The deal with the United States has become a flash point. Washington imposed a 25% reciprocal tariff on imports from India, followed by a 25% fine related to India’s Russian oil purchases. This leaves up to 50% of the responsibility on some Indian exports. The United States is India’s largest export market, worth about $87 billion per year, almost one-fifth of its total commodity trading. Key Indian sectors such as diamonds, clothing and seafood are particularly exposed.

Think about the local meaning. The diamond polish from Gujarat, the clothing workers from Tirupur and the seafood processor from Kerala are all dependent on the US order. Now surviving electronics and pharmaceuticals, but other departments employed millions suddenly became exposed.

The same is true for the tariff struggle when the two countries deepen their strategic relations. In many ways, the United States and India are working together; for example, the two countries are expanding defense cooperation, such as in quadrilateral cooperation, and advancing negotiations on semiconductor supply chains.

Major U.S. companies, including apple,,,,, Microsoftand AmazonTheir investment in India has increased in recent years. However, trade frictions complicate the relationship, raising the question of Delhi: Does Washington see India as a real partner, or is it just another transaction question to manage?

Now, let’s turn to Russia. India is the world’s third largest oil consumer, burning more than 5 million barrels a day, so cheap energy is not a luxury, it is necessary. In 2021, only 1% of India comes from Russia. Today, it’s over 35%about 1.75 million barrels per day, saving Delhi more than $17 billion since the beginning of 2022 According to analyst estimates. The discounts have been keeping inflation in checks and giving Modi a breathing space at home.

But there is a second floor here. India is moving into geopolitical ropes, and tensions in Pakistan are threatening to boil. In this case, Russia is an important security partner in India’s defense procurement, and it is difficult for Delhi to evacuate without weakening its security posture.

capture? Washington was not impressed. U.S. officials, including Peter Navarro and Scott Bessent, argued that Delhi was “profitable” by paying a price cap above the $60 price cap for Russian oil and exporting refined fuel to Europe.

Then there is Beijing, which may represent the most difficult relationship for everyone. Modi is preparing for his first trip to China in more than seven years, where he will meet with President Xi Jinping and stand with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Beijing said the event showed solidarity, but tensions between India and China remain unresolved.

The border conflict killed at least 20 Indian soldiers in 2020, prompting a senior engagement to freeze. Since then, India has banned hundreds of Chinese applications, tightened foreign investment rules and promoted self-reliance in key sectors. However, trade between the two countries still reached $118 billion last year, and India’s imports far outweighed exports. This imbalance frustrated Delhi, but also highlights why it is unrealistic to cut off a relationship.

Analysts say Modi is unlikely to make a major breakthrough when visiting Tianjin. But the emergence is a signal in itself – even if India is willing to maintain communication styles, even if it deepens its defensive ties with Washington and buys cheap oil from Moscow.

Taking a step back, India’s position looks clearer. The United States is its largest customer and the most harshest critic. Russia keeps on the lights, but at the cost of politics. China is the next door competitor, but it is too big to ignore. Delhi calls its approach “strategic autonomy”. It has been working for decades, but today’s balanced behavior is under greater pressure than ever.

This brought us back to that dinner. India wants all three guests to sit down, but the conversation can be awkward. The real test is whether Modi can stop someone from knocking on the table, throwing away the fork and rushing out.

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Richard Rossow, senior adviser and chairman of Indian and emerging Asian economics at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in India (CSIS), said that the deal between the United States and India is “still very likely” as South Asian countries propose a large number of sweeteners.

Arnab Mitra, an Indian consumer analyst at Goldman Sachs, said India could be driven by a revival driven by rural demand and an upcoming GST reform.

Meera Shankar, former Indian ambassador to the United States, said India will not be able to fully open its agricultural sector due to domestic political sensitivity.

Need to know

Trade negotiations between India and the United States are still underway. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said India has “Some red lines in negotiationsto maintain and defend. “This is our right to make decisions in the ‘national interest’,” he added. ”

India and Russia reiterate plans to promote bilateral trade. These two countries have Vow to expand their trade relations It shows in one fell swoop that U.S. President Donald Trump’s high tariffs on New Delhi’s purchase of Russian oil are unlikely to affect his partnership.

The former governor of India’s Reserve Bank urged India to reassess Russian oil. Raghuram Rajan says Trump’s high price Send a clear “wake call” to New Delhi to reduce its dependency On a single trading partner. He added that it is important for India to “ask who benefits and hurt”.

-Amala Balakrishner

Benchmark Nifty 50 It fell 0.85%, while the BSE Sensex index fell 0.87%. The 50-share Nifty 50 has risen more than 3% since the beginning of the year, while BSE Sensex has risen 2%.

The benchmark 10-year Indian government bond yield fell to 6.58%.

Here comes

August 28: Industrial and manufacturing production in July

August 29: GDP for the second quarter

August 29-30: Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Japan to attend India-Japan Annual Summit

September 1: HSBC production PMI in August

September 3: HSBC Service PMI in August; pharmaceutical research and manufacturer Anlon Healthcare and engineering and construction company Vikran Engineering launch IPO

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