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LONDON – President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs are a major concern for U.S. and international business leaders, and the industry Titans warns to raise trouble.
Speech at CNBC Live broadcast In Singapore, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warned that duties between countries are “fighting”.
“Tariffs will lead to fighting between countries…I don’t have to talk about military affairs. But think about us, Canada, Mexico, China… will be fighting and that will have consequences.”
Trump’s 25% tariff Aluminum and steel imports took effect on Wednesday, affected regions and countries in the EU, Australia and Canada. The US market has been in turmoil Responsibilities for this week.
Dalio said the current environment is an “expansion of historical models”, taking Germany in the 1930s as an example.
At that time, tariffs increased revenues and accumulated domestic bases in the country as well as debt at the time, Dalio said. “We need nationalism, protectionism, militarism. That’s how these things work,” Dalio said. “The problem is really the confrontation of all this.”
Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff describes reciprocity between countries as “good” if they treat each other in the same way. But he said “what” and “very important”. “If you can’t place what and how in a consistent, clear and meaningful way, you may end up with high levels of volatility and conflict.”
Risk of recession
Alec Kersman, managing director and head of PIMCO Asia Pacific, warns of an increase Risk of recession due to tariffs. Kersman told CNBC’s Martin Soong at Converge Live that the U.S. will enter this year’s recession, which could be “perhaps a 35% chance”, higher than PIMCO’s December 2024 estimate of 15%.
Nevertheless, the basic case scenario for PIMCO is that the U.S. economy will grow 1% to 1.5%, a “substantial decline” compared to earlier forecasts, Kersman said.
Kersman advises market participants to be “more patient” in rebalancing their investments. “There’s a lot of noise in the market right now, and you want to give it three to six months before you make that move,” he said. Tariffs will create “more unique winners and losers,” adding that “the trend of globalization is redirecting and there is no longer a universal law on how capital acts.”
Consumer spending
But Kamal Bhatia, president and CEO of major asset management, said the trade war caused by tariffs actually means consumers spend more at home.
Batia said in “Gathering Live” that most people will increase their potential spending due to concerns about the “external impact” on GDP. He said countries can “return to isolation.”
Alibaba Chairman Joe Tsai also proposed the potential to increase domestic spending. Tsai said in Converge Live that China’s domestic consumption needs “need to be raised” thanks to “tariffs and geopolitics.” US tariffs on Chinese goods According to Nomura’s estimates, it is expected to reach 33%.
“Look at Chinese consumers. They are very, very healthy. The household balance sheet is very, very strong. You are looking for more than $20 trillion in bank deposits. So they are standing off the market waiting for spending.”
Tsai said his trade policy to Trump is “half of glass”. “The Trump administration will hope that more U.S. companies are doing business in China,” he said, adding: “Ultimately, you know, tariffs may be a negotiation tool, but at some point things will get better.”
EU reaction
Europe quickly retaliates against steel and aluminum tariffs, saying it will be levied Protests against 26 billion euros (US$28.33 billion) Starting next month. “Tariffs are taxes, which are bad for businesses, bad for consumers, they are breaking supply chains, and they are bringing uncertainty to the economy,” European Commission President Ursula von von der Leyen told reporters at a press conference on Wednesday.
CNBC’s Amala Balakrishner, Anniek Bao, Katrina Bishop, Holly Ellyatt and Sam Meredith contributed the report.
