The S&P 500 ($SPX) ( SPY ) closed up +1.97% on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrials ($DOWI) ( DIA ) closed up +2.47% and the Nasdaq 100 ($IUXX) ( QQQ ) closed up +2.15%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) rose 1.92% and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) rose 2.07%.

Stock indexes rallied sharply on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrials hitting a new all-time high. Recently defeated chipmakers, software companies and AI infrastructure stocks edged lower on Friday as they clawed back some of this week’s sharp losses. Stock indexes extended their gains on Friday after the University of Michigan’s February U.S. consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose to a 6-month high.

On the downside, Amazon.com fell more than -5 percent after the company announced plans to spend $200 billion this year on data centers, chips and other equipment, sparking concerns that its big bet on artificial intelligence may not pay off in the long term.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in the US unexpectedly rose +0.9 to a 6-month high of 57.3, stronger than expectations for a decline to 55.0.

U.S. University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations fell to a 13-month low of 3.5%, weaker than expectations for no change at 4.0%. Inflation expectations for February 5-10 rose to 3.4%, up from expectations of no change at 3.3%.

US consumer credit in December rose by +$24.045 billion, beating expectations of +$8 billion and the biggest increase in a year.

Fed comments on Friday were mixed for stocks and bonds. On the positive side, Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson said he was “cautiously optimistic” about the outlook for the US economy and that strong productivity growth could help bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target. Conversely, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said, “It is critical that the Fed keep monetary policy on a tight stance to get inflation back to 2%. Also,

Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) recovered from a 1.25-year low on Friday and rose more than 11% to boost stocks exposed to the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is recovering from a selloff that briefly dragged it down more than 50% from its record high in October. Investors pulled $434 million from US Bitcoin ETFs on Thursday, and about $2.1 billion in long cryptocurrency positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, according to data from Coinglass.

Fourth quarter earnings season is in full swing, as more than 150 of the S&P 500 companies reported earnings this week. Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 79% of the 293 companies in the S&P 500 reporting that they beat expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to increase +8.4% in 4Q, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Excluding tech megacap Magnificent Seven, fourth-quarter earnings are expected to rise +4.6%.

Markets are discounting a 19% chance of a -25bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stocks settled mixed on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed +1.23%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.25%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.81%.

Interest rate

March 10-year T-bills ( ZNH6 ) closed down -0.5 of a tick on Friday. The 10-year T-bill yield rose +2.2bps to 4.202%. Mar T-bills fell from a 3-week high on Friday, and the 10-year T-bill yield rose from a 3-week low of 4.156%. T-bills gave up an early advance and posted modest losses on Friday after a strong rally in stocks dampened demand for safe-haven T-bills. Also, an unexpected increase in the University of Michigan’s U.S. consumer sentiment index in February to a 6-month high weighed on T-bills. Also on Friday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic lowered T-bill prices when he said: “It is paramount that the Fed keeps monetary policy in a tight stance.”

European government bond yields were mixed on Friday. The German 10-year bond yield recovered from a 2.5-week low of 2.812% and ended unchanged at 2.842%. The 10-year British gilt yield fell -4.4bp to 4.514%.

December German industrial production fell -1.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m and the biggest fall in four months.

German trade news was better than expected as December exports rose +4.0% m/m, beating expectations of +1.1% m/m and the biggest increase in 4 years. December imports rose +1.4% m/m, more than expectations of +0.2% m/m.

Swaps are discounting a 3% chance of the ECB cutting rates by -25bp at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movements

Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks rallied on Friday as they clawed back some of this week’s sharp losses. ARM Holdings Plc ( ARM ) and Super Micro Computer ( SMCI ) closed up more than +11%, and Nvidia ( NVDA ) closed up more than +8% to lead the Dow Jones Industrials. Also, Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD ), KLA Corp ( KLAC ), Lam Research ( LRCX ), and Marvel Technology ( MRVL ) closed up more than 8%. Also, Broadcom ( AVGO ) closed up more than +7% and Applied Materials ( AMAT ) closed up more than +6%. Finally, Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) closed up more than +5%, and Intel (INTC) and ASML Holding NV (ASML) closed up more than +4%.

Shares exposed to cryptocurrencies rallied on Friday as they clawed back some of this week’s heavy losses, after Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) recovered from a 1.25-year low and rose more than +11%. Strategy (MSTR) closed up more than +26% to lead the Nasdaq 100’s gains, and MARA Holdings (MARA) closed up more than +22%. Additionally, Riot Platforms (RIOT) closed up more than +19% and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) closed up more than +16%. Additionally, Coinbase Global (COIN) closed up more than +12%.

Bill Holdings ( BILL ) closed up more than +36% after reporting second-quarter adjusted EPS of 64 cents, better than the consensus of 56 cents, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $2.33 to $2.41 from a previous forecast of $2.11 to $2.25, above the consensus of $2.23.

Roblox ( RBLX ) closed up more than 9% after reporting fourth-quarter bookings of $2.22 billion, better than the consensus of $2.09 billion, and full-year bookings forecast of $8.28 billion to $8.55 billion, stronger than the consensus of $8.05 billion.

Gen Digital ( GEN ) closed up more than +7% after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $2.54 to $2.56, stronger than the $2.54 consensus.

Caterpillar ( CAT ) closed up more than +6% after CICC initiated an outperform recommendation on the stock with a price target of $800.

Vistra Corp ( VST ) closed up more than 4% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $205.

Estee Lauder ( EL ) closed up more than 2% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a $120 price target.

Molina Healthcare ( MOH ) closed down more than -25% to lead the S&P 500 losers after reporting an unexpected fourth-quarter loss of -$2.75 EPS compared with expectations for a profit of +41 cents, and forecast full-year adjusted EPS of at least $5.00, well below the consensus of $13.71.

Stellantis NV ( STLA ) closed more than -23% after it said a business reset led to charges of about 22.2 billion euros for the second half of 2025, about double the market consensus.

Doximity ( DOCS ) closed down more than -16% after forecasting annual revenue of $642.5 million to $643.5 million, weaker than the consensus of $645.6 million.

Illumina ( ILMN ) is down more than -9% after reporting a fourth-quarter adjusted gross margin of 67%, below the consensus of 68.1%.

Amazon.com ( AMZN ) closed down more than -5% to lead the Nasdaq 100 losers after announcing plans to spend $200 billion this year on data centers, chips and other equipment, sparking concerns that its huge bet on artificial intelligence may not pay off in the long term.

Centene (CNC) closed down more than -3% after forecasting annual revenue of $186.5 billion to $190.5 billion, below the consensus of $192.72 billion.

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) closed down more than -2% after FDA Commissioner Makary said his agency will take “swift action against companies that mass market illegal copycat drugs, claiming they are similar to FDA-approved products,” after Hims launched a cheaper version of weight loss pill Wegovy on Thursday.

Earnings Reports (9/2/2026)

AECOM (ACM), Amentum Holdings Inc (AMTM), Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR), Apollo Global Management Inc (APO), Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL), Becton Dickinson & Co (BDX), Brixmor Property Group Inc (BRX), Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF), Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF), CNA Financial Corp (CLF), CNA Financial Corp, Dynamics Inc. Kilroy Realty Corp (KRC), Kyndryl Holdings Inc (KD), Loews Corp (L), Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP), ON Semiconductor Corp (ON), Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG), Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc (SSD), UDR Inc (UDR), Vornado Realty Trust (VNO), ZoomInfo Technologies Inc (GTM).

As of the date of publication, Rich Asplund had no positions (either directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com