Snowfall in NYC sees millions of dollars traded in prediction markets

Central Park under snow, NYC, February 2010. Heavy snowfall, surrounding trees with snow on the branches.

The recent snowstorm in the New York City surprisingly led to the largest Kalshi climate related marketaccording to a report, but not everyone is happy with the result. It also comes just a few weeks later Polymarket refused to pay bets about if the The US military will invade Venezuelawhich focuses on disputes over how words are interpreted.

The publisher Barons said a spokesperson told them that the snowstorm market was the largest climate-related market seen on the Kalshi platform, with 17,418 traders trading $5.1 million in the market as of early Monday afternoon (January 26).

The snowstorm market in NYC @KalshiThe biggest climate market, a spokesperson told me, with more than 17,000 traders participating and $5.3m in volume.

A New York-local businessman I spoke with got his edge by measuring snowfall on a parked car. pic.twitter.com/VP1HOFXUqr

– Nick Devor (@nickdevor_) January 26, 2026

The company began accepting snowfall bets across its forecast market, with a focus on inch counts ranging from two inches to two feet. Before the snowfall began, the New York City and New Jersey region was predicted to see somewhere between eight and 14 inches of snow, depending on the actual location.

Kalshi market asked people the question ‘Snow in New York City from January 24-26?’ with the result detailed confirmed by the National Weather Service measuring snowfall in NYC in Central Park.

NYC snowfall prediction markets focused on Central Park

In the comments, however, some people suggested it was “misleading” because they didn’t know it would point to snow in Central Park.

I sold the NYC snow market to Kalshi. At the time of writing, it has a $3mm volume. Polymarket has around $550k in volume in total. From what I can tell, they have the same terms of resolution (want to fact check on that).

You think higher volume = more…

— SurfShopCapital (@SurfShopCapital) January 26, 2026

In a comment, left under the original market, someone said: “I feel bad for all the beginners who read the title and bet on snow in NYC. There is more than 12” of snow in NYC, just not in one place that matters… “

They went on to say that the title should have included ‘in Central Park NYC’ for clarity.

Others, however, in the Kalshi comments section, suggested people read the rules.

Screenshot of a Kalshi prediction market discussion showing users debating a snowfall bet in New York City. Commentators argued that the market was misleading because it was settled based on snowfall in Central Park, even though other NYC boroughs such as Queens received more than 12 inches of snow. — Traders disputed Kalshi’s comments on whether a NYC snowfall market was misleading after the results were based only on Central Park measurements. Credit: Kalshi

Kalshi isn’t the only one allowing people to bet on the weather event though, as Polymarket has also opened similar markets titled ‘How many inches of snow in NYC this week? (Jan 24-26).’

In the first line of Polymarket rules, they say that the market will be settled according to the total snowfall in Central Park, New York City, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. At the bottom of the rules, they mention that it will be focused on the Central Park area once again.

Featured Image: By Ekahbishek of Wikimedia Commons, CC 2.0

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