Editor’s analysis

Trump faces challenges as Iran refuses to negotiate following a military escalation and the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

US President Donald Trump likes to be seen as unpredictable. But when it comes to military action against Iran, his shifting messaging about the conflict’s duration and objectives belies his failure to achieve his apparent goal: to reach conclusions quickly so he can declare victory.

Despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday – a brazen act that has become a hallmark of Trump – and the heavy bombing of Iran, leaders of the Islamic Republic public rejection The prospect of an immediate return to the negotiating table.

Instead, Iran is testing the will of its Gulf Arab neighbors Repeated attacks Not only targeting U.S. assets, but also civilian areas and threatening to attack any ship passing through the U.S. Strait of Hormuz.

The Iranians’ message is clear: They have the ability to fight back and believe they must exert some kind of deterrence before any negotiations to stop the fighting, whenever that may be.

Thus, with the Iranian nation poised for a protracted war, Trump is thrust into a situation he has generally avoided during his two terms as president. That might explain why his message is so inconsistent.

Trump said the war could be over in days but also gave a timetable of up to five weeks or longer. He sees the fight as a fight for the freedom of the Iranian people and support for the country’s opposition, but he has also made it clear that he would be happy to make a deal with some in the country if they were willing to abide by his terms.

These contradictions mask the reality that Trump does not have the courage to fight for the long term. During his time in office, Trump was willing to use U.S. military power to attack opponents and even threaten allies. But he basically does it when he can win quickly and easily, or he backs off when he realizes it’s not possible.

Last year’s military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen was proof of this. When Trump made it clear that it would take months to completely reduce the Houthis’ offensive capabilities, Agree to reach agreement The Houthis agreed to cease attacks on U.S. ships, even as the Yemeni group continues to attack Israeli interests.

A protracted conflict with Iran could have the opposite consequences of a quick victory—more American casualties, damage to the global economy, and an inability to protect regional allies. It’s all for a fight that Trump hasn’t spent much time trying to convince the American people to support, and that’s already unpopular.

Iran’s strength has declined, but it has not been eliminated

Iran’s government has been weakened after years of economic troubles, in part due to Western sanctions and protests in January that killed thousands. But air power alone has always been unlikely to overturn a system that has been entrenched across Iran for decades.

Instead, Trump said he preferred the situation in Venezuela, where Khamenei’s killing was equivalent to the U.S. kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, and the involvement of other establishment figures more to the U.S.’s liking.

Currently, the Iranian government is not interested. It believes that if negotiations begin now and an agreement is reached without establishing deterrence, Israel and the United States will find new reasons to attack in the foreseeable future, effectively taking action “Mowing the lawn” Targeting the Palestinian strategy against Iran, which involves intermittent threats of attacks to prevent them from becoming stronger.

There is good reason to fear Iran — something Trump himself has spoken about. “I could take over the whole thing for the long term, or end it in two or three days and tell the Iranians: ‘See you in a few years if you start rebuilding[your nuclear and missile programs],'” he told the news website Axios on Saturday.

All this ambiguity leaves Trump free to adjust his stance and turn the tide of the war if he wishes. If the US president decides the costs are too high, he will be more than willing to sell the killing of Khamenei and the image of destruction in Tehran and elsewhere as a victory.

Of course, the consequences would be catastrophic for many other countries: more chaos in the region, damage to the assets and images of allies in the world’s economic center, and Iran’s opposition promising much but likely to receive very little.