Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free

Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world

Europe’s security crisis is developing. Two dangerous elements may come together in 2025. A growing threat from Russia and growing indifference from Donald Trump’s America.

European countries must immediately respond to this surprising geopolitical combination by building up their own defenses. For that to happen, it is important for Germany, Europe’s largest economy, to finally get well Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s. promise of a dramatic increase in defense spending.

Making the political case for more defense spending requires clarity about what is happening in Russia and America.

Mark Rutte, recently appointed secretary-general of NATO, Warned last month that: “The Russian economy is in a war . . . Danger is heading our way at full speed.” He urged Nato to rapidly increase defense production and “shift to wartime thinking”.

Last April, General Christopher Cavoli, the supreme commander of Nato in Europe, warned that: “Russia shows no signs of stopping. Nor does Russia intend to give up on Ukraine. Western analysts argue that Russia is now engaged in a hybrid war in Europe – involving regular acts of sabotage that risk high casualties.

During the cold war, the US led the allied response when Russia dialed up the military pressure in Europe. But the reaction of Americans this time promises to be very different. President-elect Trump’s key appointments include advisers who have been clear about their desire to redeploy American military assets from Europe to Asia.

Elbridge Colby, who was recently nominated as under secretary of defense for policy, WRITES in the FT last year that China was a higher priority for the US than Russia and argued that “the US should keep forces from Europe necessary for Asia, even in the event of Russia coming first to attack”.

European defense analysts worry that the US military withdrawal from Europe will encourage Russian aggression. Recently book, Keir Giles of Chatham House argues: “Withdrawing American military support for Nato is the surest way to make the possibility of a Russian attack beyond Ukraine a possibility.”

In much of Europe, however, the Russian threat seems far away. In nearly three years of fighting in Ukraine, Moscow’s armies have made limited territorial gains and taken heavy losses – now estimated at 700,000 troops killed or wounded.

But the extent of the casualties that Vladimir Putin is willing to absorb should also be a warning. Russia’s army is now bigger than when the war started in 2022. And, as Rutte pointed out recently, the country produces “a large number of tanks, armored vehicles and ammunition”.

European countries lack the manpower and equipment to engage in a war of attrition of the kind Russia is fighting in Ukraine. At the beginning of last year, the British army had 73,520 — the smallest since 1792. The German army had 64,000.

NATO military planners think the alliance is about a third short of where it needs to be to effectively deter Russia. There are particular shortages of air defense, logistics, ammunition and secure communication equipment.

Alliance members currently commit to spending 2 percent of GDP on defense. They may raise the nominal target to 3 percent at the next NATO summit. But even that would be enough if European countries agreed to make shopping less divided along national lines.

The 3 percent target is also based on the assumption that America will largely maintain its commitment to Nato. Otherwise, defense planners think European countries should increase defense spending to 4.5 percent of GDP. But even 3 percent looks very difficult. The problem is embodied in Rutte’s own record as prime minister of the Netherlands from 2010 to 2024. His country only hit the 2 percent target in the last year of his tenure.

The closer you are to the Russian border, the more serious the Russian threat. Poland is on course to increase its defense spending to 4.7 percent of GDP by 2025. But in larger economies in western Europethat’s a different story. Germany and France barely hit 2 percent last year; Britain is at 2.3 percent.

France has a budget deficit of 6 percent of GDP and a public debt of over 100 percent. The British government is also heavily in debt and struggling to raise revenue.

But Germany – with a debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 60 percent has the fiscal space to spend more on defense. It also has a substantial industrial and engineering base.

Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democrats, who is likely to emerge as German chancellor after this year’s election, took the threat from Russia seriously. He could lead a historic transition. If Germany relaxes constitutional provisions against deficit financing – and accepts the need for common EU debt to fund European defense – it could change the continent’s security landscape.

Even 80 years after the end of the second world war, some of Germany’s neighbors — especially Poland and France — feel nervous about German rearmament. However, for their own security, they must overcome it.

[email protected]