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Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insights throughout the Premier League weekend.
Many will look at the 17/20 prices here in Brighton via Sky Bet and be tempted. But I’m not.
This remains a tactical duel and a profitable long-term strategy against the Seagulls. Brighton, who have just one win in 10 Premier League games, can be lethal in transition when attacking high up the pitch, but that fluidity disappears when opponents are trapped in tight mid-low defense.
Under Fabian Huerzeller, Brighton have won just four of their last 18 games with opponents passing more than 15% of their passes. Everton under David Moyes will be ticking the tactical box.
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The Toffees are also more of a threat on the break than they are often given credit for, especially in wide areas.
Everton thrive when the games get tight, as their victory over Aston Villa proved. I like Sky Bet to win away at 3/1.
Score prediction: 1-2
At this stage, winning the Premier League title is less about ability and more about emotion management, and Arsenal is starting to look like a team that only thinks about results rather than process.
This game is an awkward moment for this Arsenal side as Elland Road will poke at their insecurities in an environment full of pace and aggression. If Arsenal are free to play, you’ll be rooting for them to get through it and win this game with Sky Bet trustworthy at 8/15. Now, I’m not so sure.
Sky Bet’s 6/4 odds on Leeds United’s double chances look very tempting, covering both a win and a draw.
Score prediction: 1-1
Wolves v Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm
The market feels a bit off-balance when it comes to assessing this Bournemouth position. Yes, the raw numbers jump off the page, with 4.5 goals per away game this season eye-catching, but context is everything.
These games are usually played on Bournemouth terms, with open play and a tense structure, with opponents happy to punch each other. This trip to Molineux looks to be a very different test.
The Wolves have quietly become one of the best teams in the league at controlling the way they play. Their defensive process has been outstanding in recent weeks, but the goal action has dried up.
They forced their opponents into low-quality chances and pressed the game to a narrow advantage. This was exactly the environment Bournemouth struggled to convert into a penalty shootout. This looks like a fantastic opportunity, with odds of 11/10 backing Wolves to score under 2.5 goals with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 1-0
Chelsea v West Ham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6 here!
There’s a card angle here that feels like it slipped through the pricing cracks. The London derby was fraught with controversy by all accounts, but one particular match stood out: Marc Cucurella versus Jarrod Bowen.
Bowen is one of the most effective foul makers in the Premier League in one-on-one situations. He draws opponents in deftly, dribbling aggressively and forcing defenders to face recovery challenges. The data supports this. Bowen has drawn 10 cards from opponents this season, more than any other player in the league.
Marc Cucurella is priced at 100/30 with Sky Bet on the cards
Now put Cucurella into the scene. He is preemptive, emotional and likes to get involved early. He doesn’t shy away from contact and is more than willing to stop an attack if he feels exposed – as evidenced by back-to-back bookings in his last two home starts.
When you consider Bowen’s record of forcing bookings and the likelihood of repeated defensive duels down Chelsea’s left flank, Cucurella’s card at 100/30 with Sky Bet feels like a big deal.
Score prediction: 2-2 | Jones knows the best bet: Marc Cucurella will be out (100/30 at Sky Bet)
Saturday, January 31, 5:00 pm
Starts at 5:30 p.m.
Liverpool vs Newcastle, Saturday 8pm – Play Super 6 here!
With both Jeremy Frimpong and Connor Bradley unavailable, Arne Slott may be forced to make a work-around at right-back, with Wataru Endo an obvious emergency option after filling the position in midweek. This positional shift completely changes the perception of the price of his cards.
Endo is aggressive, has a sharp front foot, and is much more comfortable in confrontations than running in space. Use him at full-back and you’re asking him to defend a large area against pace and direct runs. Newcastle are one of the worst opponents you can face when learning to play on the wing.
If Endo does start at right guard, he’ll be dealing with Anthony Gordon and potentially Lewis Hall in what could be a nightmare matchup. Gordon ran directly at the defender and caused contact. The figures underline the threat, as Gordon has already faced six different opponents in the Premier League this season. Endo is priced at 5/2 and is a real runner if he starts at fullback.
Score Prediction: 2-1 | Jones Knows Best Bet: Wataru Endo (5/2 at Sky Bet)
Aston Villa v Brentford, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
It’s one of those prices that makes you stop, wash your face with cold water and check that you read it correctly.
Considering what this team has been telling us for months, Aston Villa’s win at 21/20 via Sky Bet feels very generous.
Villa have been an elite-level side since going winless in their first five games in the Premier League. With 43 points in 18 games, they were undoubtedly a title challenger, and no team in the division had more points during that period. This isn’t a short-lived craze, either. This is a respectable sample of results. This is sustained excellence.
Brentford, meanwhile, remain a team you want to play against on the trip. In the Premier League this season, only Wolves, the bottom team, have suffered more away defeats (8 games). Home win.
Score prediction: 2-0 | Jones knows the best bet: Aston Villa to win (Sky Bet 21/20)
Manchester United v Fulham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6 here!
There is no better set-piece attacker in world football than Harry Maguire. Dead ball situations are constantly being exploited for goals this Premier League season and Maguire will be quick to get his feedback.
Harry Maguire’s scoreline against Fulham is 7/1
Returning to the United starting line-up, Maguire is playing alongside an authority player who has shone in the past two games. That confidence translates into confidence as he ventures forward. Maguire’s old-school dominance remains a formidable betting weapon, with Sky Bet’s 7/1 making him worth a shot.
Scoreboard prediction: 2-1 | Jones knows the best bet: Harry Maguire to score (Sky Bet 7/1)
Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
This one has a very strong needle smell. There is lingering animosity in the air following a summer legal dispute that culminated in Forest replacing Crystal Palace in the Europa League, and when you consider the context of relegation, emotions are likely to run hot. This is usually when the card market comes alive.
One game in particular looked ready to deliver.
Neco Williams is expected to clash with Ismaila Sarr, making it a tough afternoon for any defender. Sarr shows no mercy in one-on-one situations, running right at defenders and forcing his team to make quick decisions. This statistic is astounding from a defensive perspective, as Sarr has taken 21 cards from opponents since the start of last season, with only Bruno Guimarães responsible for more in the Premier League.
Williams looks to be 100/30 betting material and Sky Bet will book a tight contest.
Score Prediction: 1-1 | Jones knows the best bet: Neco Williams will be carded (100/30 at Sky Bet)
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6 here!
The strange relationship between the two is inescapable. Spurs have won seven of their last 12 games, while Guardiola has lost more games to Tottenham (eight) than any other opponent in the Premier League. On paper, this history screams Tottenham Hotspur.
When you see Spurs winning 100/30 via Sky Bet, the temptation is obvious. But Tottenham at home is still incredible.
Rather than fighting uncertainty, it would be wiser to isolate a player who could still profit from Tottenham doing the right thing, which is where Dominic Solanke comes to the party with a score of 11/4 at Sky Bet.
He has become a forgotten man, but Solanke was born to score goals in the Premier League. Goals in back-to-back games served as a reminder of his talent.
There is a larger motivational advantage at play. With England’s forward depth taking center stage, Solanke knows he is developing into a potential replacement for Harry Kane at this summer’s World Cup in England.
Score prediction: 2-2
Dominic Solanke’s goals against Manchester City are 11/4
Sunderland v Burnley, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Sunderland are the only team in the Premier League to remain unbeaten at home this season. That’s wild.
But trends do change suddenly, and in betting, when to step in to profit from such run endings is a key weapon to use when trying to profit in this game. Sky Bet’s odds are 19/5 – a Burnley win too big to miss.
Granit Xhaka’s absence is key. We clearly saw how vulnerable Sunderland are without a midfield reference point in their worst performance away to West Ham this season. Without Xhaka’s control, leadership and ability to dictate the tempo, Sunderland lost structure, lost composure and were beaten too easily.
Burnley need a win now. So their approach will be positive and the market is throwing us a very juicy carrot regarding their winning prospects.
