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CFTC Chairman Michael Selig joins “Mornings with Maria” to defend federal oversight of prediction markets amid an escalating legal battle with state regulators.
A single digital gamer known only as “Magamyman” walked away with $600,000 this weekend after successfully betting on the US military attacking the Iranian leadership, and he wasn’t alone.
As millions of dollars flooded linked controversial prediction markets US strikes on Iran and the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, blockchain researchers say a handful of alleged insiders may have used non-public information to turn the fog of war into a windfall.
Just before the US-led strikes that rocked Iran early Saturday, Reuters and other media outlets reported a surge in “suspiciously timed bets” that generated significant profits. Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six alleged insiders in a post on X, saying they collectively obtained $1.2 million from Polymarket just hours before the conflict began.
POLYMARKET BETTING COMPANY OPENS NYC’S FIRST FREE GROCERY STORE IN DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN
The total trading volume on Khamenei’s fate reached more than $55 million on Kalshi and more than $58 million on Polymarket.
Traders on the Kalshi and Polymarket prediction market platforms made millions on transactions related to the Iran conflict. (Getty Images)
Kalshi faced heightened scrutiny after the federally regulated stock exchange voided some transactions made with the position, “Ali Khamenei Out as Supreme Leader?” as the fine print indicates that individuals cannot benefit directly from death. Instead of liquidating “Yes” contracts at the full value of $1, Kalshi invoked a “death cut” rule, liquidating positions based on the last traded price before his death was officially confirmed and refunding all trade fees.
“As an exchange, we resolve the market according to the rules, even when there is disagreement with the resolution. I understand that many of you are frustrated by Khamenei’s market,” Tarek Mansour, co-founder of Kalshi. published in X.
“No trader lost money in this market. Although the rules were clear and we did our best to highlight them, traders said they weren’t highlighted enough,” Mansour continued. “We’ve learned a lot from this market. We’re updating how we present similar markets (eg those with a death or likely scenario) so traders can see the exception more clearly before trading.”
Iranian-American journalist Masih Alinejad joins ‘Mornings with Maria’ to react to the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran, defend President Donald Trump’s military strikes and weigh in on Iran’s future after the reported death of Ali Khamenei.
Neither Polymarket nor Kalshi immediately responded to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.
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“Betting on war and death not only presents national security risks, but also raises serious concerns about potential insider trading, which offers unscrupulous government officials the opportunity to profit from the new war in Iran.” Senate Minority Leader Adam SchiffD-California, published on X Monday. “These contracts are immoral. (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) can and should ban them.”
Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour says the company wants to give people what they want in “The Claman Countdown.”
However, this is not the first time that prediction markets have faced scrutiny for alleged insider trading. Last month, Kalshi took action by suspending and fining two users, including an employee of the world’s most subscribed YouTuber, MrBeast, for trading in material non-public information.
