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The writer directs the Center on US and Europe at the Brookings Institution

European capitals are considering the return of Donald Trump on January 20 with a degree of uneasiness. The US president-elect is known, after all, to have less than warm-and-fuzzy feelings towards Nato and the EU.

All the capitals of Europe? Not much. Consider Oslo, where senior Norwegian politicians like to say reassuringly that “our bilateral relationship with the US will always be secure”. And they have some very good points in their favor.

Norway, a founding member of Nato and his eyes and ears in the Arctic, is the guardian of the North Atlantic exit route for the Russian submarine fleet based on the Kola Peninsula. It plans to overshoot NATO’s defense spending goal of 2 percent of GDP by 2025, and its long-term defense plan will nearly double the defense budget by 2036; a “civil defense brochure” tells citizens how to stock up for emergencies, including war. This is a major one Advocate in Ukraine. Fifty-two percent of Norway’s $1.8tn sovereign wealth fund is invested in North America. It has at least one trade deficit with America. These are all things the president-elect wants.

Ask around Oslo, however, and concerns quickly arise. Trump’s enthusiasm for tariffs is a particular source of concern, he said Norway not a member of the EU. “If the US imposes tariffs on Europe, and the EU retaliates with counter-tariffs, we will be hit with a double loss,” sighed an official.

Concerns about security are also widespread. Russia and China are shrinking the Arctic. They are particularly interested in the Svalbard archipelago, which is Norwegian territory, but under a century-old international agreement allows other countries to exploit the resources and conduct research. Is it Trump? downgrade the role of the US in Nato, Oslo will feel more vulnerable to pressure from Moscow and Beijing. And what if Russian president Vladimir Putin, in return for a ceasefire in Ukraine, asks for US support for tweaks to the European security order – as an expanded Russian base and China in Svalbard?

Will all this make the EU seen in a new light? Norway said it would not participate in two referendums in 1972 and 1994, joining the European Economic Area (EEA) instead. A November poll still had 34.9 percent of Norwegians saying their country should join, with a plurality of 46.7 percent against. However, that is down from more than 70 percent versus 2016.

Policymakers in Oslo noted the EU’s competition struggles and the rise of the far right, as well as their own domestic obstacles such as fishing or agricultural interests. But they also watch the speed and determination that Finland and Sweden have brought together in Nato. One pointed out that Helsinki is about to get its own mandate on Nato land in 2025, and Stockholm got a position of director-general of the alliance’s international civil service, “while we are away!”

In fact, Norway’s global commitment to diplomacy, international institutions and law, the seriousness of the military, the generous development aid, its position as one of the main energy suppliers in Europe after almost complete. decoupling from Russiaand finally its extraordinary wealth makes it a prime candidate for accelerated EU membership.

So the problem for a dependent and exposed Norway is – said the newspaper After the post put it memorable after Trump’s re-election — whether it will be “the 51st US state, like a kind of Puerto Rico” or the 28th EU member state. The appeal of the latter option is that Norway will move to the top floor. At a time when Paris and Berlin can hardly lead, it will not only shift the balance of power in Europe, but start anew.

Because Norway is not the only European country quietly weighing its options. Pro-EU parties won Iceland’s November parliamentary elections. Switzerland has concluded negotiations on a package deal with the EU, and it has been ratified neutrality is the subject of a lively national discussion. Ireland is not a member of Nato, but it has also strengthened ties with the alliance. Sweden’s debate over swapping the weak krona for the euro remains inconclusive; but war in Europe could make joining the Eurozone look like more political insurance.

A skeptical Norwegian banker argues that it will take a political “meteorite” to shift his country’s stance on EU membership. Given the experience of the first Trump administration, that is unthinkable. But it will be funny if the 47th president will be a great unifier of Europe.