Less immigration under Trump could contribute to 2 million-person gap in labor force, CBO says



The working-age population in the US is headed for a cliff, one that has become steeper in the past year due, in part, to the Trump administration’s strict immigration policies.

The proportion of American adults who are working or actively looking for work will steadily decline over the next decade because labor force of all ages. But declining birth rates and the White House’s immigration boom are set to put an even bigger dent in America’s future workforce — a gap of more than 2 million people.

Over the next decade, the US population is projected to grow by an average of 0.3% per year, according to a view report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), published on Wednesday. That’s half the growth rate reported by the nonpartisan agency last year, and equates to a downward shift of 2.4 million fewer working-age Americans by 2035. A smaller workforce could have a big impact on U.S. productivity for the foreseeable future—but in the eyes of the Trump administration, emerging technologies could help soften the blow.

The CBO report says that increased business adoption of artificial intelligence will help productivity stay afloat over the next decade. By 2036, the output of the US economy will be 1% higher than without the help of AI, an additional value that could be worth several hundreds of billions of dollars, according to the report.

The report cites the impact of AI as an “offsetting factor” as the economy slows down labor force. It also notes how the shift towards an AI-powered economy accounts for a large share of private sector spending. Business investment this year, in fact, is expected to grow by 3.9%, fueled largely by the construction of data centers and the purchase of high-end computers and intellectual property needed to deploy AI at scale. Major US technology companies and so-called “hyperscalers” have already done so about $650 billion so far in the development of AI infrastructure this year. This surge in investment is likely to help the U.S. maintain productivity even as the number of available workers declines, according to the CBO.

The Trump administration described the impact of AI as a potential boon for GDP, along with the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors last month. report AI-related investments were responsible for 1.3% of GDP growth last year, drawing comparisons to the impact of railroad investments during the Industrial Revolution.

But the benefits of AI filling human vacancies and capturing economic growth can only go so far. For one thing, AI won’t pay taxes, and fewer people means a smaller taxpayer base. The CBO estimates that the reduction in net immigration due to the policies of the Trump administration will lead to 5.3 million fewer people living in the US a decade from now. The reduction in tax receipts will also put pressure on the government budget, with actions taken on immigration in Trump’s first year in office adding half a trillion dollars to the federal deficit by 2035.

A decade later, the loss of people is hard to forget. In one report released last month, the Brookings Institute noted that “almost all growth in the labor force has come from immigration flows” in recent years, and a decline in entries by 2026 will likely mean negative job creation and slower economic growth. Falling illegal and legal immigration could lead to up to 15.7 million fewer workers by 2035, according to an October study through the National Foundation for American Policy, a public policy researcher. Annual economic growth would also fall by nearly a third because of a smaller workforce, the study found.

In many other businesses CAUTIOUS As for AI integration, whether the technology will improve productivity enough to offset less human capital is unclear. The CBO report lists growth due to AI advances as one of the main uncertainties in its forecast, but with declining immigration and the natural-born labor force in the US expected to keep shrinkingmany are riding on AI to deliver rapid productivity gains.



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