There is no point in “challenging” US President Donald Trump head-on, argued former External Affairs Secretary Kanwal Sibal. He said the absence of Russian oil on the world market would increase prices as its shortage cannot be completely overcome. Also, it would not be easy for Trump to jeopardize the trade deal with India, he added.

Kanwal’s remarks refer to External Affairs Secretary Vikram Misri telling a panel headed by Congress MP Shashi Tharoor that the trade deal with the US was the best possible outcome that India could have secured amid the “changed global paradigm”, as reported in a report in The Hindu. Misri also reiterated that farmers’ interests would be protected.

Calling it a sensible move, Sibal stated, “Trump has a fetish for executive orders. Issuing them gives him a sense of power. There’s no point in challenging him head-on.”

“In practical terms, Russian oil will enter the world market as it cannot be completely replaced by other sources. Oil prices will rise if there is no Russian oil in the market. The USTR has recognized the value of the agreement for the US. It will not be easy for Trump to abandon the agreement and the BTA on the issue of Russian oil,” he explained, adding that he will also impose tariffs on India.

Sibal added that the Russian oil issue is linked to the end of the conflict in Ukraine, and therefore any progress on this front is likely to change the dynamics of the issue.

India’s purchase of Russian oil has been at the center of the trade deal with the US. Along with the announcement of the trade deal, Trump said that tariffs on India were reduced to 18%, due to India’s measures to reduce purchases of Russian oil. Trump and his team have reiterated that India, and with it Europe, have been supporting the war in Ukraine by buying Russian energy.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, in his latest interview with Fox News, said that India is reducing “purchases of Russian energy products and has begun to increase purchases of energy from the US and other sources”. He said that India gets Russian oil, refines it and sells it to Europe.

Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, in a cautionary statement, said Russia hoped New Delhi’s deal with Washington would not affect its relationship with Moscow.