Is Trump’s choice for Fed chair a ‘chameleon’ or a ‘reliable’ choice? |Bank News


Dovish. wise. chameleon.

These are just some of the terms used to describe Kevin Warsh, the man chosen by President Donald Trump to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank.

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If confirmed by the U.S. Senate, Warsh, a former Fed governor, will succeed Jerome Powell when his term ends in May. Trump announces Warsh Friday as his nominee.

“I have known Kevin for a long time and there is no doubt that he will be one of the greatest Fed chairs, maybe the best,” Trump posted on his Truth social site. “Most importantly, he is ‘core casting’ and he will never let you down.”

Over the past year, Trump has repeatedly lambasted Powell for not lowering interest rates at the pace and level he would like. Wash is expected to have a smoother experience — at least initially.

Part of the reason is that he comes from a Republican environment. His father-in-law is Ronald Lauder, heir to the Estee Lauder cosmetics fortune and a longtime Trump donor and ally.

Warsh also currently serves as a fellow at the right-leaning Hoover Institution, a think tank at Stanford University, where he lectures as a visiting scholar.

But more importantly, critics say, Warsh has shown a willingness to align with Trump’s policies. After years of supporting high interest rates to control inflation, Warsh recently made statements advocating for lower rates, consistent with the president’s views.

The history of “transformation”

It’s this flexibility that prompted mixed reactions to Wash’s nomination.

“He’s a very good chameleon,” said Skanda Amarnath, executive director of the policy research group Jobs America. “He comes across as well-informed and knowledgeable, but when you analyze what he says, there’s not much.”

Amanat’s criticism is based on observations of Wash’s policy positions over the years.

Warsh, 55, served on former President George W. Bush’s National Economic Council before joining the Fed’s Board of Governors in 2006 at age 35. He served at the Fed until 2011, during which time he worked with then-Chairman Ben Bernanke to respond to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

The crisis saw the collapse of financial services firms such as Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns. Warsh was particularly opposed to some of the low-interest-rate policies the Fed was pursuing at the time to stave off the effects of an economic collapse.

Amarnath said that during that period, he “worried about inflation most of the time.” “Even in August 2008, he was talking about inflation when Lehman Brothers collapsed. He completely missed the point.”

Amanat said Wash also appeared to downplay the unemployment rate at the time, even though it was approaching 10%. Today, the U.S. unemployment rate remains at a healthy 4.4%.

In 2017, as Trump began his first term as president, Warsh began to soften his stance on inflation. Amarnat told Al Jazeera that Warsh’s apparent partisanship left him “somewhat worried” about what might happen if there was another financial crisis.

“His track record shows that his views are quite partisan and political and he scoffs at reliance on data,” he said. “The shape changes depending on who is in office.”

“Political” Records

However, some experts are more optimistic about Warsh as a candidate for the Fed’s top job.

Economist Robert Rogowsky, a professor of trade and economic diplomacy at Georgetown University, calls Warsh “a solid choice, albeit not a great one.”

“He’s obviously very smart and has a solid track record in the field,” he said.

Still, Rogowski acknowledged that Wash could be viewed as a political opportunist. “His record does look a little political — a currency hawk under a Democratic administration and promoted by Trump to a currency dove under Trump.”

However, Rogowski said he wasn’t too worried about Warsh following Trump’s aggressive push for rate cuts.

While the Fed chairman is a very powerful character, he represents only one vote on the seven-member board and cannot override a majority vote. While Warsh “may sound very Trumpian,” Rogowski believes he will ultimately refuse to implement Trump’s “extreme and extremely harmful” interest rate cuts.

“He’s smart enough and I pray he’s respectable enough that he’s driven by economic training,” Rogowski said.

Trump has called on the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates to 1% from current levels (about 3.75%).

Rogowski said Warsh realized that such a policy move would lead to a “medium-term inflation catastrophe” that could lead to “an immediate catastrophic decline in the dollar and a level 5 global trading system.”

Rachel Zimba, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a think tank, said Trump’s trade policies already pose a huge challenge to any incoming Fed chair.

Ziemba pointed out that Trump’s aggressive international trade policies and immigration crackdown policies may shock the U.S. economy. Currently, while economic growth is “good,” job growth is minimal, she added.

“A rate cut is unlikely to solve these problems,” Ziemba told Al Jazeera.

At this time, it’s unclear whether Wash will ultimately take on the role. He faces a Senate confirmation hearing in the coming months, and Trump’s policies could also be an obstacle.

At least one Republican senator, Thom Tillis, has said he will not support any Trump nominees to the Fed until the president drops the criminal investigation into Powell.

The investigation, announced this month, is widely seen as Trump’s latest attempt to force the Fed to comply with his demands.



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