Escalating conflicts in the Middle East have fueled concerns that Washington’s pursuit of regime change in Iran and retaliation by Tehran could destabilize regions from the Gulf to Europe, leaving global leaders scrambling to assess the consequences.

Initiated by the United States and Israel joint strike The killing of the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over the weekend has triggered a wave of attacks by Tehran across the region.

U.S. President Donald Trump made clear in a video on Saturday that his goal is to “eliminate the imminent threat of the Iranian regime, which is an evil group of very tough, terrible people,” following the first wave of U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran.

Geopolitical analysts warned that Saturday’s attack could be the start of a sustained military campaign aimed at overthrowing the Iranian regime, as the United States seeks dominance in the world’s most critical oil-producing region.

“The scale of the U.S. and Israeli attacks, coupled with Iran’s apparent goal of regime change, suggests that a military conflict could escalate quickly and unpredictably,” said Rexon Ryu, president of the Asia Group, a business consulting firm. “There is significant immediate risk for regional and potentially global escalation, as Iran is now likely to use any available options to respond.”

“Previous attacks have targeted nuclear weapons programs,” said David Silbey, a professor of military history at Cornell University. The 12-day war last June The United States and Israel launched air strikes that destroyed three key Iranian nuclear facilities.

But “the goal is much broader, targeting command and control, headquarters and leadership, as well as the military and secret police,” Silbey said. “Since the United States does not appear to be launching a ground operation in the near future, the goal is to overthrow the regime domestically, either through a popular uprising or a palace coup.”

Silbay warned that Iran could retaliate, including missile attacks on Israeli and U.S. military bases and ships in the Persian Gulf, as well as possible terrorist actions in the Middle East, Europe and the United States.

“If the regime feels threatened, it will strike harder than it thinks it can weather an attack,” Silbey said.

Recent fires have spread to other parts of the Bay Area. The Iranian missiles targeted Israel and several Gulf states, including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan, which all have air bases containing U.S. assets.

“Years of détente between Iran and the Gulf may be over,” Asia Group chief Aisha Chaudhry said.

China is an important economic lifeline for Iran under severe Western sanctions More than 80% By 2025, Tehran will transport oil accounting for 13.5% of China’s total seaborne crude oil imports. Iran is also a key supplier of military drones and missiles to aid Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine.

Matt Gerken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, said years of brutal war in Ukraine have weakened Russia’s ability to project power beyond its borders.

Gerken added that Moscow’s influence in the Middle East will further weaken due to military overstretch and the economy coming under continued pressure from Western sanctions.

But as Washington continues to build up its military presence in the Gulf ahead of the attacks, Beijing has refrained from publicly expressing strong support for Iran. Instead, it focuses on encouraging diplomacy and regional security.

Analysts are watching for potential signs that the latest Middle East conflict could undermine U.S.-China diplomatic engagement and even President Trump’s planned visit to Beijing later this month.

In a statement on Saturday night, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson urged the United States and Israel to “immediately cease military operations in the region” and resume dialogue, calling for “respect for Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity.”

On February 4, Trump had a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss issues such as Iran, Taiwan, and trade. “Beijing may seek concessions on issues more directly related to its interests, such as Taiwan and trade, in exchange for a significantly watered-down message on Iran,” said Ahmed Abdouh, a fellow at Chatham House, a policy think tank in London.

Paradoxically, Iran’s weakening may be in China’s interest. “Whether it’s U.S. or Israeli military strikes or civil unrest, the weaker the Iranian regime becomes, the more dependent it becomes on China diplomatically, economically and technologically,” Abdouh said.

In the longer term, China may feel pressure to maintain its dominance in the region. Abdul said that “China needs to demonstrate power projection in its region to deter U.S. military operations and establish a sphere of influence,” but the current vulnerability of oil supplies may limit its options.

For now at least, military action appears to have dashed any remaining hope Resolve through negotiation About Iran’s nuclear program.

The United States and Iran have held three rounds of indirect talks focused on reaching agreement on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs and on lifting Washington’s economic sanctions on the country.

Gerken said that because the Iranian regime was at a moment of “grave vulnerability”, Washington and Jerusalem were unable to obtain guarantees of denuclearization and disarmament from Tehran and decided that “the opportunity to reshape the region cannot be missed.”