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We came across one bullish thesis at Intuitive Machines, Inc. in The Analyst’s Journal’s Substack of A_Capital. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on LUNR. The action of Intuitive Machines, Inc. it was trading at $18.42 on January 26. LUNR’s trailing P/E was 9.20 according to Yahoo Finance.
Athena, lunar landing of the Intuitive Machines IM-2 mission. Photo from Intuitive Machines website
Intuitive Machines, Inc. designs, manufactures and operates space products and services in the United States. LUNR represents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity in the emerging lunar economy, located at the intersection of accelerating government space policy and commercial lunar development. The company is transitioning from a specialty lunar landing supplier to a prime contractor of vertically integrated space infrastructure through the pending $800 million acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems.
This acquisition would immediately expand LUNR’s pro forma revenue to more than $850 million, increase its portfolio to $920 million, and provide established GEO/LEO satellite manufacturing capabilities, effectively transforming the company into a full-service space mission provider from Earth orbit to the lunar surface. The company’s near-term growth is based on several NASA contracts, including the potential $4.82 billion Near Space Network Services (NSNS) program and the planned Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) contract, where LUNR is a leading candidate.
The company’s competitive advantages include proven lunar landing experience, pioneering metalox propulsion beyond LEO, deep NASA partnerships and, following Lanteris, vertical integration in spacecraft design, manufacturing and mission operations. However, significant execution risks remain, highlighted by two previous hard landings, a limited operating history and ongoing negative EBITDA. Despite these risks, LUNR has achieved positive gross margins in recent quarters and is targeting positive adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2025, with pro forma profitability expected in 2026.
The investment case is supported by multiple near-term catalysts: the IM-3 mission scheduled for the first quarter of 2026, the award of the LTV contract and the successful integration of Lanteris. If executed successfully, these developments could substantially jettison the business, triple revenues and establish LUNR as a dominant player in the lunar economy.
At current levels of around $10-11, the stock offers an asymmetric advantage for risk-tolerant investors, with the potential to reach $20-25 in the bullish case, while remaining highly volatile and dependent on mission and contract performance. The recommendation is a speculative buy, suitable for investors comfortable with binary outcomes and active tracking of milestones.
