Since Donald Trump was re-elected as US president, there has been increasing discussion about what his incoming administration’s policy towards Afghanistan might look like.

Many expect Trump to take a tougher stance against the Taliban, but a closer look at Trump’s track record and statements on the issue suggests he is unlikely to embrace the pragmatism and pragmatism he embraced during his first term. A firm anti-intervention policy makes any significant changes.

During his first term as president, Trump made clear his opposition to protracted foreign engagement, particularly the decades-long U.S. presence in Afghanistan. He is the architect of the project 2020 Doha Agreement The conflict between the United States and the Taliban paved the way for the United States to withdraw its troops from the country and ultimately return the Taliban to power.

The Doha Agreement is a major turning point in the US strategy in Afghanistan. Trump, unhappy with the progress of his administration’s South Asia policy, frustrated by a perceived lack of accountability among military advisers and eager to prove to his base that he can indeed end one of America’s longest and costliest wars, began Look for quick solutions to problems. Leave Afghanistan. After all conventional strategies failed to produce a viable exit plan, he entered into direct negotiations with the Taliban to end the conflict.

After re-election, Trump is likely to stick with the business-minded foreign policy that remains popular with his supporters and favor pragmatic deals over costly confrontations and military confrontations in Afghanistan and elsewhere entanglement.

The Taliban themselves appear to believe that a Trump presidency could be beneficial to their future prospects. For example, Abdul Qahar Balkhi, spokesman for the Afghan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said the Afghan government hopes that a future Trump administration will “take realistic steps to promote concrete progress in relations between the two countries and that the two countries can Start a new chapter in your relationship.” A post on X in November, shortly after Trump won the US election.

The Taliban’s optimism about future relations stems from its positive interactions with the first Trump administration. After all, the first Trump administration negotiated directly with the Taliban, initiated the process of withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan, and prepared the ground for the U.S. return to Kabul.

However, while he is more willing than President Joe Biden to engage in pragmatic cooperation with the Taliban and is staunchly opposed to any direct military confrontation, Trump is unlikely to let the Taliban have their way with the country or give it to them without receiving any support Everything needed. price. For example, if the Taliban fails to make progress on its commitments under the Doha Agreement, Trump could cut U.S. aid or condition it on tangible progress in specific areas.

Trump has advocated cutting foreign aid, and as part of his “America First” approach, he could also significantly reduce U.S. aid to Afghanistan without providing reasons or conditions. He would also not hesitate to impose severe economic sanctions on the Taliban government if he concluded that it was harming U.S. interests in some way.

U.S. humanitarian aid amounts to About $40 per week Because the Taliban’s takeover is a vital lifeline for Afghanistan’s impoverished population. Any restrictions or reductions in U.S. aid would have a significant impact on its well-being and the fragile Afghan economy. Such a decision would deepen Afghanistan’s economic crisis and further undermine progress in education, health and food security.

Since Trump’s last term as president, global attention has shifted away from Afghanistan. After the U.S. withdrawal, the country became somewhat marginalized from Washington’s foreign policy agenda as hot global conflicts erupted between Ukraine and Palestine. As an “America first” president who must spend much of his time dealing with crises in the Middle East and Europe, it is highly unlikely that Trump will view Afghanistan as a problem that he has solved.

However, Trump’s isolationist tendencies in foreign policy, coupled with aid cuts and economic sanctions he may impose on the Taliban, could easily lead to the collapse of the Afghan economy and make Afghanistan once again a pressing issue for the United States and its allies.

An economic collapse in Afghanistan could trigger a new migrant crisis, severe regional instability, and create fertile ground for extremist groups such as the Islamic State. Islamic State (ISIS) affiliate in Khorasan Provinceflourishing.

While Trump’s non-interventionist stance appeals to an American public wary of foreign intervention, the knock-on effects of weakening and further impoverishing Afghanistan could create long-term security challenges.

Such a scenario would also have serious consequences for the Afghan people—increased economic hardship, possible collapse of health services, renewed conflict, and further isolation from the rest of the world.

Once Trump returns to the White House and attempts to implement his “America First” agenda, Afghanistan is unlikely to be a priority in his mind. Nonetheless, the choices he makes on Afghanistan will have an important impact not only on the long-suffering Afghan people, but also on the entire international community.

In short, in his second term, Trump will need to find the right balance between pragmatic disengagement and global leadership responsibilities to successfully implement his Afghanistan policy and ensure that his efforts to end a conflict fail Will create worse conflicts in the future.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.