As a deadline set by the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah in the south of the country approaches, the group insists it will not give up its weapons.

Lebanon’s cabinet in August tasked the military with developing a plan to dismantle Hezbollah’s weapons by the end of 2025, in line with a plan proposed by the United States.

Hezbollah quickly rejected the decree, calling it a “serious crime” and promising to treat it “It’s like it doesn’t exist.”

In September, the Lebanese military proposed staged approach The disarmament of Hezbollah began in the south of the country and reached the Litani River, 28 kilometers (17 miles) from the Israeli border, moving north to the capital Beirut before spreading across the country.

Thursday is the deadline for the first phase to be completed. But a defiant Hezbollah has resisted U.S. and Israeli efforts to disarm as Israel conducts military operations. daily air strikes It’s Lebanon.

Hezbollah leader Naeem Qasim said this week: “To demand exclusive arms control at a time when Israel is launching aggression and the United States is imposing its will on Lebanon and stripping it of power means you are not doing it for Lebanese interests but for the interests that Israel wants.”

Israeli attack

Despite a heated debate in Lebanon over the exclusivity of weapons in state hands, Israeli attacks on the country have not abated.

Israeli forces bombed several villages in southern Lebanon on Wednesday and blew up the last undamaged house in the border town of Marvahim, the official state news agency reported.

Israeli attacks are not limited to the south of the Litani River. In November, Israel bombed Beirut and killed Hezbollah’s top commander, Haitham Tatabai.

Last week, Israel launched an attack Killed three peopleIncluding a Lebanese officer in the coastal city of Sidon, north of Litani.

In addition to continued violations of Lebanese airspace by airstrikes and drones, the drone of which can often be heard in Beirut, Israel continues to occupy five locations within Lebanon.

Israel has also been preventing the reconstruction of villages nearly destroyed in last year’s war and regularly carries out attacks on southern Lebanon’s construction sector.

Hezbollah said it was ready to discuss a Lebanese defense strategy that would include the group’s weapons when Israel halts its attacks.

argument

Hezbollah’s opponents argue that the group cannot stop Israeli attacks and therefore its weapons will only invite further attacks without providing a meaningful defense.

They also said that Shia Muslim parties should not make war and peace decisions for the entire multi-religious country alone and that meaningful nation-building is impossible without an independent armed force that does not obey the government.

Critics also highlight Hezbollah’s alliance with Iran, accusing the group of acting as a tool of Tehran. “Axis of Resistance” rather than promoting Lebanese interests.

However, Hezbollah says that without its resistance, Israel could seize southern Lebanon and build settlements, leaving the poorly equipped Lebanese army unable to fight.

The United States is Israel’s closest ally and the main weapons supplier to the Lebanese army. In September, U.S. special envoy Tom Barak admitted that Washington did not support the Lebanese armed forces in their fight against Israel.

“We don’t want to arm them … so they can fight Israel. I don’t think so,” Barak said. “So you arm them so they can fight their own people, Hezbollah. Hezbollah is our enemy. Iran is our enemy.”

Hezbollah also called Israel an expansionist entity that needed no excuse to attack Lebanon, pointing to the ongoing presence of Israeli troops in Syria. expand their careers Crossed the Golan Heights without any provocation.

Hezbollah supporters point out that Israel’s aggression in Lebanon dates back to 1948 and stems from the state’s neglect of the south – long before Hezbollah was founded in 1982.

history

Hezbollah was founded with the help of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps during the Lebanese civil war and Israel’s invasion of the country, and has emerged over the past few decades from a ragtag militia to a regional power.

Use guerrilla warfare tactics to force Israel withdraws troops The military operation launched in southern Lebanon in 2000 was seen as a rare military victory for the Arab side in the history of the conflict.

It launched an all-out war with Israel in 2006 and reached a stalemate that hampered Israel’s goals of disbanding or disarming the group.

In the years that followed, Hezbollah intervened in Syria’s war, helping former President Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian government retake much of the country from opposition forces.

It has also sent military advisers to help Iranian-backed groups in Iraq fight the Islamic State (ISIS).

Domestically, Hezbollah has exerted considerable influence over the Lebanese government since 2006, successfully maintaining a strong parliamentary bloc with its allies and promoting individuals close to the group to key positions.

But that all came crashing down last year for Hezbollah. After the outbreak of Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza, the organization opened the “Nusra Front” in support of Hamas.

For months, violence has been largely confined to the Lebanese-Israeli border area. However, in September 2024, Israel launched an attack across the country, dealing a heavy blow to Hezbollah.

Israeli forces killed most of the group’s senior political and military leaders, including its leader Hassan NasrallahAfter the 2000 victory and the 2006 war, he achieved iconic status among Hezbollah followers.

The conflict has also led Israel to systematically destroy border towns, forcing a long-term depopulation of the region, an operation that some analysts have likened to ethnic cleansing.

The war has killed thousands and displaced millions, who have been away from their homes for more than two months, with many taking shelter in schools and other public buildings.

The war ended with a ceasefire, which was ignored by Israel and observed by Hezbollah, except for an attack on Israeli positions in December 2024.

Danger

Hezbollah – beleaguered, bleeding domestic allies and facing a de facto unilateral ceasefire and continued Israeli attacks – now finds itself at a crossroads.

Lebanese officials say military make progress Complete the first phase of the disarmament plan. But Hezbollah says it will not give up its weapons or its fight against the Israeli occupation.

But the threat of another Israeli war looms over the country. U.S. President Donald Trump did not rule out the possibility of another conflict when asked about the incident on Monday.

“We’ll see,” Trump said during a joint appearance with the Israeli prime minister. Benjamin Netanyahu In Florida.

“If you think about it, the Lebanese government is kind of at a disadvantage vis-à-vis Hezbollah. But Hezbollah has been performing badly, so we’ll see what happens.”

Within Lebanon, efforts to disarm Hezbollah by force could lead to civil war. Despite attacks by Israel, Hezbollah still has thousands of fighters and retains a sizable arsenal.

A conflict between the state and Hezbollah would be disastrous for Lebanon. Internal conflict could also lead to Hezbollah-sympathizing officers and commanders in the military refusing to “fight their own people.”

All in all, Lebanon and Hezbollah are at a critical juncture, with Israel’s emerging regional dominance casting a painful shadow over the country and no easy solution to the crisis.