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Job seekers talk with recruiters in front of event signage at the WorkSource North Seattle job fair on Tuesday, February 10, 2026, in Seattle, Washington, USA.
David Ryder | Bloomberg | Getty Images
January nonfarm payrolls report It beat Wall Street expectations on both job creation and unemployment rates. Here are the five most important points:
- From a headline perspective, this is good news. Non-agricultural employment increased by 130,000 The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, helped by a 528,000 surge in household employment. The Dow predicts 55,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%.
- Wages have also risen, rising 0.4% for the month and a higher-than-expected 3.7% annual rate. Working hours, an indicator of productivity, increased by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours.
- Along with the sunshine comes some rain. The annual revision of employment, which is based on census data, showed employment growth between April 2024 and March 2025 was 898,000 lower than originally reported. Additionally, the November forecast is down by 15,000 and the December forecast is down by 1,000. In the last six months of 2025, the economy lost a net 1,000 jobs.
- Wage growth is again concentrated in health care-related areas: mobile health services, hospitals, nursing and residential care facilities provide 82,000 jobs, and the social assistance sector provides 42,000 jobs. Only the construction industry showed significant improvement, adding 33,000 jobs.
- Traders are increasing bets that strong overall employment data and falling unemployment rates will sustain economic growth. Fed It’s been on the sidelines until summer. According to futures market trading, the probability of a rate cut in March is only 8%, and the next rate cut will not occur until at least June. CME’s FedWatch Indicators.
This is what they said:
“Just announced: Job numbers are huge, way ahead of expectations! The United States of America should pay less to borrow (bonds!). We are once again the most powerful country in the world, so should be paying the lowest interest rates yet. That would be at least a trillion dollars a year in interest cost savings – balance the budget, and wow! America’s golden age is coming!!!” —President Donald Trump, in a Truth Society post
“The strong January employment numbers may be exaggerated: construction employment surged, sensitive to warm January weather; health care employment well above trend; and retail sales stable. Given the temporary strength in these areas, the underlying private payrolls growth rate is likely closer to 50,000 per month, close to recent growth rates.” — Michael Gapen, chief economist at Morgan Stanley
“Strong job growth in January eased some concerns about a weakening labor market and supported the consumer outlook. But we need to see more data to determine whether January was a brief deviation from the overall trend or a reversal of the softer employment outlook.” — Atsi Sheth, chief credit officer, Moody’s Ratings
