Goldman Sachs examines the impact of the LA fires on US GDP, payrolls By Investing.com


Investing.com– Goldman Sachs analysts say the recent series of devastating wildfires in Los Angeles County, California, could be the costliest wildfire event in California history, and likely factor in upcoming US economic data.

GS said that comparing forest fires to other disasters, such as hurricanes and earthquakes, the investment bank saw a roughly 0.2 percentage point drag on first-quarter gross domestic product. growth, excluding any offset measures from reconstruction efforts.

In the labor market, GS expects a drag of about 15,000 to 25,000 on nonfarm payrolls growth in January from the wildfires, in part because only about 0.5% of California’s population is under evacuation. . The investment bank does not expect a pick-up in jobless claims due to the event, with initial data on claims due this week likely to remain low.

GS analysts said they don’t expect insurance costs to “have a big impact on inflation,” seeing little spillover to prices outside of California, because homeowner’s insurance at home constitutes a small part of the price index of personal expenses.

LA County has been battered by several devastating wildfires in the past week, with initial damage estimates estimated at nearly $30 billion. This figure would make the wildfires costliest in US history.

Authorities were seen racing to put out the fires before dangerously high winds set in this week, which are expected to further fuel the blaze.





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