By David Ljunggren

OTTAWA (Reuters) – The head of a Canadian political party that keeps Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in power says he will vote in favor of a motion of no-confidence, effectively guaranteeing the Liberals will be ousted from power early. next year.

Trudeau has been under increasing pressure to quit since Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned over a policy clash.

Here are some potential ways forward for Canada:

WHAT HAPPENS IF TRUDEAU RESIGNS?

If Trudeau resigns, the Liberals will name an interim leader to take over as prime minister while the party holds a special leadership convention. The challenge for the party is that these conventions usually take months to arrange and if an election is held before then, the Liberals are in the hands of a prime minister who is not elected by the members. This has never happened in Canada. The Liberals may try to run a shorter convention than usual, but that could prompt protests from candidates who feel it puts them at a disadvantage.

There is no way Freeland can easily be named prime minister on a permanent basis, as tradition dictates that an interim leader does not run as a party leadership candidate.

WILL TRUDEAU BE FORCED BY HIS LIBERAL PARTY?

Unlike in Britain, where party leaders are elected by parliamentary caucus and can be removed immediately, the Liberal leader is chosen by a special convention of members. So there is no formal party mechanism to remove Trudeau if he wants to stay.

That said, if the members of his own cabinet and many legislators call him to go, he may conclude that his position is not credible.

WILL TRUDEAU BE FORCED IN PARLIAMENT?

Canadian governments must demonstrate that they have confidence in the elected chamber of the House of Commons. Votes on budgets and other spending are considered confidence measures and if a government loses, it falls. In almost all cases, the election campaign begins immediately.

The House of Commons closed for winter break on Tuesday and won’t be back until January 27. The government can use maneuvering techniques to avoid being brought down by a spending measure but it must take several days each session. of the opposition parties if they can expose the actions of anything, including no confidence.

Assuming that the government spends the opposition days at the end of the session, the most likely time for Trudeau to step down is the last 10 days of March. This will trigger an election sometime in May.

IS THERE ANY OTHER WAY FOR TRUDEAU TO BE PRESSED?

Supreme constitutional power in Canada rests with Governor General Mary Simon, who is the personal representative of King Charles, the head of state. He could theoretically unseat Trudeau, but in real life it’s not going to happen. “The governor general will not dismiss a prime minister who still holds the confidence of the Commons,” said Philippe Lagasse, a professor and constitutional expert at Ottawa’s Carleton University.

WHAT ELSE CAN TRUDEAU DO TO AVOID BEING DESTROYED?

Trudeau could prorogue parliament, formally ending the current session and giving him some breathing room. Under this scenario, the return to the House would be delayed for several weeks, allowing the government to unveil a new plan on how it plans to govern the country. This would have the advantage of delaying any motion of no-confidence, but it would further anger Liberal lawmakers, especially if Trudeau is still prime minister.