Nearly three weeks of bus drivers’ strikes and angry farmers setting up roadblocks have plunged Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa into one of the most tense moments of his presidency.

The government raised the cost of diesel after cutting subsidies last month, sparking an outcry.

18 days later with no sign of dialogue, one protester has been killed, multiple protesters and authorities have been injured, and more than 100 people have been arrested.

On Thursday, the army announced a massive deployment to the capital, saying it would prevent vandalism and destruction of property. Earlier in the day, dozens of protesters marched through various locations in the city, before up to 5,000 troops were deployed.

Although the demonstrations called by CONAIE, Ecuador’s largest indigenous organization, should be nationwide, the worst impact has been in the country’s north, especially in the province of Imbabura, where Noboa won the April election with 52 percent of the vote.

Faith Simon, a law professor at the University of San Francisco in Quito, said that on the one hand there is “a president who thinks he has all the power after winning the election, with authoritarian tendencies and no dialogue tendencies.”

On the other side, he said, was “the Aboriginal sector showing an intransigent attitude and seeking co-governance through force”.

Tensions were heightened on Tuesday when protesters attacked Noboa’s convoy with rocks. The government condemned it as an assassination attempt.

However, indigenous organization CONAIE denied this claim. It insists its protests are peaceful and that the government is responding with force.

What led to the demonstrations?

The protest was organized by CONAIE, short for the Confederation of Indigenous Peoples of Ecuador.

The group mobilized its supporters after Noboa ordered the removal of diesel subsidies on September 12.

Diesel is vital to Ecuador’s agriculture, fishing and transportation sectors, where many indigenous people work. The move raises the price of a gallon (3.8 liters) of diesel from $1.80 to $2.80, which CONAIE said will hit the poor hardest.

The government tried to quell the protests by offering some handouts, and unions did not participate in the demonstrations. The Federation rejected the government’s “gift” and called for a general strike.

What does protest look like?

The Indigenous Federation is a structured movement that played a central role in the violent uprisings in 2019 and 2022 that nearly toppled then-Presidents Lenin Moreno and Guillermo Lasso.

Its methods have not always been seen as effective, especially when protests turn violent.

Daniel Crespo, a professor of international relations at Quidolos University, said the federation’s demands for the return of fuel subsidies, tax cuts and a halt to mining were efforts to “impose its political agenda.”

The federation says it simply wants to fight for a “decent life” for all Ecuadorians, even if it means opposing Noboa’s economic and social policies.

What is Noboa’s policy?

Noboa is a 37-year-old politically conservative millionaire and heir to a banana fortune. He began his second term in May amid widespread violence.

One of the measures he took was to increase the value-added tax rate from 12% to 15%, citing the need for extra funds to fight crime. He also laid off thousands of government workers and reorganized the executive branch.

The president has chosen a harsh approach to making these changes and has resisted calls for dialogue. “The law awaits those who choose violence. Those who act like criminals will be treated like criminals,” he said.

What are the consequences?

Last week, a protester died and video showed soldiers attacking a man who tried to help him.

The images, along with generally aggressive actions by security forces in the face of protesters, have stoked anger and drawn criticism from groups inside and outside Ecuador for using excessive force.

The attorney general’s office said it was investigating the protester’s death.

Experts warn that if the protests, which have mainly taken place in rural areas, spread to cities, especially the capital, the situation could become more violent, with frustrated civilians likely to take to the streets to confront protesters.

Crespo and Simon agreed that some group would need to step in and lead the parties to dialogue, perhaps the Catholic Church or civil society organizations.