India’s economy is poised for its slowest growth in four years, with GDP expected to expand by 6.4% in fiscal 2024-25.

The first advance estimates, published by the Central Statistics Office just before the Union budget, point to a significant slowdown in the economic trajectory.

That projection is in line with forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists, which pegs growth at 6.4%. The Reserve Bank of India also cut its outlook for the previous fiscal year, revising its previous estimate from 7.2% to 6.6%.

Gross value added (GVA), a critical measure that excludes indirect taxes and subsidies, is forecast to equal GDP growth at 6.4%. Meanwhile, nominal GDP, the basis of budget calculations, is expected to increase by 9.7%.

The agriculture and allied sectors are projected to grow by 3.8% in 2024-25, a significant recovery from the 1.4% growth recorded last year. On the other hand, the construction sector and the financial, real estate and professional services sectors are expected to register strong growth rates of 8.6% and 7.3%, respectively.

Private final consumption expenditure, a key indicator of consumer demand, has increased by 7.3% this fiscal year, a notable improvement over the previous year’s 4% growth. In the same way, public expenditure on final consumption has recovered to a growth rate of 4.1%, compared to 2.5% in the last financial year.

These figures set the stage for the government’s fiscal strategy, shaping critical decisions as the Union Budget takes shape.