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The price of gold hit another new record yesterday, rising above $5,300. It’s up an astonishing 3% this morning, as measured by the Comex forward contract. Gold has gained 22.31%, year to date.

It’s not hard to see why. Gold is better as a safe haven for investors bailing on assets that have been dragged down by the falling US dollar.

the dollar fell 1.3% yesterday against a standard index of foreign currencies. It is down more than 2% year to date. One euro now buys $1.20. The British pound is worth $1.38. The dollar has not been this weak in years.

President Trump said he was totally fine with that. “No, I think it’s good,” Trump said when asked by reporters yesterday. “I think the value of the dollar — look at the business we’re doing. The dollar has done great.”

The president hopes that the sinking dollar will make US assets cheaper and thus boost America’s export trade.

The risk is that the rest of the world will lose faith in the dollar’s status as the world’s “reserve currency”, the idea that the dollar, and dollar-denominated assets, are always the safe call. No one on Wall Street seriously thinks the US is in danger of losing reserve status anytime soon—but they sure are talking about it.

“The dollar is unlikely to lose reserve status overnight,” UBS’s Paul Donovan said earlier this week. “However, the decline in US international and international investors’ questions about important issues such as the rule of law means it is losing market share. Additionally, as trade slows down (and may retreat), reserve status will become less important.

This morning he told clients: “The risk of a weaker dollar is the account of the relative decline in the US, which has implications for capital flows. Bonds, not inflation, are the most vulnerable to dollar weakness.”

George Vessey, Convera’s lead FX & macro strategist, said luck: “The common thread is misguided US policy, which has fueled the dollar’s risk premium and pushed investors to rotate out of dollar-denominated assets or hedge their exposure.”

ING’s Chris Turner wrote that he thinks the dollar could lose another 3% against foreign currencies.

“We don’t expect the size of this dollar sell off quickly. It will be instructive how the dollar moves around tonight’s FOMC meeting. What we think is that a Fed moving to a stop would give the dollar some support. However, if any rally proves to be weak and the dollar ends the day lower, even if short-dated US yields rise, then this is a sign of a moment,” he said with a hint of slightness.

“We can now go to a decent 3% lower dollar. It’s hard to support that on fundamentals, but the burden is now on the dollar to prove otherwise.”

With the greenback failing in its mission as a “store of value,” investors flocked instead to gold, and central banks have moved to bullion as a hedge against a declining dollar, you can expect Bitcoin to do well.

It is not.

The cryptocurrency was priced at $89.4K this morning—below its record high. This is down 13% over the past 12 months. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research had the best headline on this topic yesterday: “Is Gold the New Bitcoin?”

All this drama somewhat overshadowed the US equity market: The S&P 500 hit a new record high yesterday, rising 0.41% to 6,978.6. Index futures rose 0.33% this morning. But for foreign investors, yesterday’s 0.41% gain more than offset the -1% haircut imposed by the dollar’s decline—a rare example on a day when dollar assets lost value around the world despite rising.

Collectively, it seems traders are betting that Trump’s “weaker dollar, better exports” strategy is good for equities—but if the president is wrong, they’re buying gold, too.

Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:

  • S&P 500 futures rose 0.33% this morning. The last session closed up 0.41% at 6,978.60, a new record high.
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.43% in early trading.
  • The UK’s FTSE 100 down 0.32% in early trading.
  • Nikkei 225 in Japan is flat.
  • CSI 300 in China increased by 0.26%.
  • The South Korean KOSPI increased by 1.69%.
  • NIFTY 50 in India increased by 0.66%.
  • Bitcoin increased to $89.4K.



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