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What does this mean for next season, and how often do teams in these spots stay there when May rolls around? Let’s break it down.
Does being top at Christmas warrant the title?
Historically, being peaked on Christmas Day has given mixed views.
In 16 out of 32 Premier League seasons, the team leading the table at this point has gone on to lift the trophy – that’s a 50% success rate.
Liverpool’s record, however, is less encouraging. On 25 December, they came first for the seventh time, but they managed to convert one of those leads into the title in the 2019–20 season.
Where will your team spend Christmas? 🎄#FestiveFixtures pic.twitter.com/gvP1axTs40
— Premier League (@premierleague) December 23, 2024
In fact, Liverpool have topped the table at Christmas more than any other English club in history, achieving the feat 21 times and winning the league on 11 of those occasions.
Recent history shows the unpredictability of being prominent in Christmas. For instance, Arsenal topped the table for the fourth time during the Premier League era last season but failed to secure the title, as they had in their previous three attempts.
In contrast, Chelsea, Manchester City, Blackburn Rovers and Leicester City all go on to win the title each time they lead on Christmas Day.
Interestingly, teams outside the top four at Christmas have occasionally gone on to claim the title.
This has happened four times, including last season when Manchester City came from fifth place, six points behind Arsenal, to claim a fourth consecutive championship.
Who’s in the European spots?
The current top four consists of Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and a surprise contender – Nottingham Forest.
Fifth-placed Bournemouth could also sneak into the Champions League conversation depending on how other English clubs fare in European competitions.
Chelsea’s Premier League record of 15 goals from 04/05 is officially secured for another season 🤩 pic.twitter.com/dQe3ExglQC
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) December 22, 2024
Aston Villa and Manchester City are sixth and seventh respectively, which could be the Europa League and Conference League places depending on the domestic cup winners.
It is worth noting that last season’s Christmas top seven saw significant movement towards the end of the campaign. Only West Ham (sixth at the time) dropped out, while Chelsea moved up from 10th into the top seven.
Relegation: Who’s in trouble?
At the other end of the table, Ipswich, Wolves and Southampton occupy the relegation zone.
Southampton’s position looks particularly dire, as they sit eight points adrift at the bottom. Wolves and Southampton have recently appointed new managers to turn their fortunes around.
It’s rare for the same three teams in the relegation zone at Christmas to be there in May, but it does happen.
Last season, Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United all finished in the bottom three from Christmas to the final day.
– Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) December 23, 2024
This has only happened in four other Premier League seasons:
- 2001-02: Derby, Leicester, Ipswich
- 2012-13: Wigan, QPR, Reading
- 2020-21: Fulham, West Brom, Sheffield United
In such circumstances, with only four teams out of 32 making it out, being at the bottom at Christmas offers little hope. Exceptions include West Bromwich Albion (2004–05), Sunderland (2013–14), Leicester City (2014–15), and Wolves (2022–23).
Interestingly, two clubs in the Premier League era have finished in the top 10 at Christmas yet still been relegated: Norwich City (seventh in 1994–95) and Blackpool (10th in 2010–11).
For reference, the team currently sitting in seventh place – Manchester City – is unlikely to follow suit.
What lies ahead?
As the league enters the second half of the season, Liverpool’s chances of converting their Christmas lead into the title remain uncertain given their history, while Southampton face an uphill battle to avoid relegation.
With European football on the horizon for many teams and the relegation battle heating up, the Premier League promises plenty of drama in the coming months.
