A study of World Weather Attribution, which analyzes recent heavy rainfall causes severe flooding in parts of South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, showing that the region experiences a year’s rainfall for 10 days.

This has resulted in widespread damage to housing and infrastructure estimated to run into millions of dollars, while humanitarian agencies say there is a worsening crisis for people who are missing and facing hunger, disease attacks and lack of health services. because of destruction.

Many houses and buildings in Mozambique was completely submerged under water and many hospitals and clinics were destroyed, while roads and bridges were washed away in the South African provinces of Limpopo and Mpumalanga and parts of Zimbabwe.

The study was conducted by scientists from around the world using peer-reviewed methods to assess the impact of climate change on extreme weather patterns and events.

A magnitude that occurs once in 50 years

Data obtained from the recent rainfall event, the unusual magnitude of which occurs roughly once every 50 years, confirms a “clear step towards more intense rainfall events,” the study said.

This is also compounded by the current La Nina weather event which naturally brings wetter conditions to the southern region of Africa but is now operating within a warmer atmosphere.

“Our analysis clearly shows that our continued burning of fossil fuels not only increases the intensity of extreme rains, but also makes the events that occur in something more extreme,” said Izidine Pinto, a senior climate researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.

Pinto, co-author of the study, said that the climate models used struggle to determine exactly how severe the recent floods have been caused by climate change, but that a 40% increase in rainfall intensity is impossible to explain without human-caused climate change.

“This means that what should have been an intense period of heavy rains has turned into an even stronger flood that communities are ill-equipped to deal with,” he said.

Africa contributes only 3% to 4% of global emissions, according to the United Nations, and yet is one of the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The flood and past crises such as hurricanes in southern Africa has caused hundreds of millions to billions of dollars worth of damage in mostly poor countries and the continent has encouraged richer countries to help more with climate-related disasters.

About 1.3 million people in southern Africa have been affected by floods this month, the World Health Organization said.

The rain exceeded expectations

The affected regions of southern Africa are no strangers to heavy rains and floods, but scientists are alarmed by the scale of the recent events.

“This event is a surprise to us because we experienced the previous ones 25 years ago, which flooded the same areas,” said Bernardino Nhantumbo, a researcher at the weather service in Mozambique. “There are places that have recorded two to three days of rain expected for the entire rainy season, so it is very difficult to accommodate any conditions.”

Nine international rivers flow into Mozambique and major damage is expected after the event due to heavy rains as well as river flow, Nhantumbo said.

“Our forecast is good because we have different models, but these are the events that even with a good forecast you can’t keep the damages involved,” he said.

The central and southern parts of Mozambique were the worst hit, with the Gaza provincial capital of Xai-Xai and the nearby town of Chokwe largely submerged under water.

Researchers are looking for climate models that focus on Africa

The researchers also called for the development of African climate models to better understand the dynamics and extent of the impact of climate change on different regions of the continent.

The lack of climate models developed in Africa is part of the reason why most models struggle to determine how severe the recent floods have been due to climate change, according to Friederike Otto, professor of climate science at the Center for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London.

“All of the climate models that we have that are freely available were developed outside of Africa. They were all developed within climate modeling centers in the US, Europe and some in Asia,” Otto said. “But there is not a single climate model developed in Africa. Because of this they are usually designed so that they get the best weather in the regions where they are made, and that is true for all the models.”