Cuba has been reeling, the island nation of 11 million people reeling from the shackles of a severe fuel shortage that affects nearly every aspect of life.

this fomenting a humanitarian crisis This is a direct result of the new, aggressive approach taken by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump following the U.S. military kidnapping of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Trump’s actions go well beyond Washington’s decades-long embargo on the island, threatening to impose crippling tariffs on any country that provides fuel shipments, thereby choking lifeline supplies from Venezuela and Mexico.

But with the impact US policy Analysts told Al Jazeera that the lives of Cubans just 90 miles (145 kilometers) from the US state of Florida have come under increasing scrutiny, but there has not been the same clarity on what the Trump administration actually hopes to achieve in its strategy.

Trump, meanwhile, has sent a contradictory message: He has both told reporters that he seeks a “deal” with the communist government of Miguel Díaz-Canel and plans to make Cuba “free again,” hinting at the regime change long sought by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

“One possibility is that they did reach some kind of agreement,” William Leogrand, a professor at American University who studies U.S. foreign policy in Latin America, told Al Jazeera. “But the $64,000 question is, what are the terms of such a deal?”

“The second possibility, of course, is that the oil embargo caused society to collapse on the island, and without electricity, without gasoline, without any fuel, society actually started to collapse,” he said.

A third possibility, Leogrande explained, is that the United States could take a Venezuelan approach and appoint a more flexible leader while keeping the government in place.

“But I think even if there was someone high enough in the Cuban government that they could actually win the loyalty of the armed forces and the government and party bureaucracy, which I doubt, I don’t think the Trump administration has any way of identifying them or communicating with them,” he said.

“Trying to bring the Cuban government to its knees”

In the short term, Trump, who has long portrayed himself as a dealmaker, appears to be leaning toward sending a message calling for a deal with Díaz-Canel’s nervous government, said Tiziano Breda, senior analyst for Latin America and the Caribbean at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED).

Trump said discussions are ongoing but has not disclosed the nature of any contact or the terms of any proposals.

“Trump’s interest and desire to engage in an ideological battle with these left-wing governments has diminished,” Breida told Al Jazeera. “The impression given to me by this situation is that Trump’s goal is to try to bring the Cuban government to its knees, not to promote its collapse.”

Meanwhile, Díaz-Canal said he was willing to talk to the United States, but only “without pressure or preconditions” and with respect for sovereignty.

At the same time, he condemned Washington’s “criminal policy against a nation because it affects food, transportation, hospitals, schools, economic production and the functioning of our vital systems.”

Díaz-Canel added in a statement last week that Cuba seeks peace but is developing a defense plan “in case we have to enter a state of war.”

Terms are unclear

Some analysts assess that some kind of new agreement between the United States and Cuba is still on the table, but any terms seen as an existential threat to the government in Havana will be out of the question.

It’s unclear what kind of extraction Trump considers satisfactory.

Cuba’s economic contribution is far less than that of Venezuela, a South American country with the world’s largest proven oil reserves. However, it contains vast reserves of rare earths and critical earth minerals, including the world’s third-largest reserves of cobalt, a key mineral used in lithium-ion batteries and other advanced technologies.

“Economically, Cuba has little to offer other than a tourism deal or some trade deals,” Breda said, though he added that Trump could try to pressure Havana to “concess in certain conditions, such as immigration, the presence of U.S. rivals in the country and security cooperation between Russia and China.”

Last month, in an executive order declaring Cuba an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to the United States, Trump focused on relations between Russia and China, both of which cooperate with Cuba on defense but have no known military bases in the country.

The order also highlighted the Cuban government’s crackdown on dissent and further accused Havana of hosting what Washington considers “transnational terrorist groups,” including Hamas and Hezbollah.

Cuban experts often argue that the threat posed by Cuba is exaggerated, while noting that there is insufficient evidence to support claims of a “terrorist group.”

That raises further questions about what tangible concessions the administration could offer Trump if his order is seen as a prelude to negotiations.

Regime change?

To be fair, Trump’s stated desire to negotiate with Cuba’s current government is a clear departure from decades of ideology among the U.S. Republican Party, which has long shunned any form of engagement with the communist government established by Cuban leader Fidel Castro in 1959.

This approach has been particularly supported by Trump’s top diplomat Rubio, himself the son of Cuban immigrants with a political career predicate Take a hawkish approach to the islands.

Rubio has for months promoted the idea that the government in Havana is on the verge of collapse, laying the groundwork for Trump’s current pressure campaign. His stance dovetails with the influential Cuban-American voting bloc, which has been a key component of the Republican electoral coalition.

“Rubio’s goal is to overthrow this regime in Cuba,” Leogrande said, “so he’s not going to be happy with whatever deal Trump makes in Venezuela, especially if it’s more or less a permanent deal.”

Leogrande, meanwhile, downplayed the possibility of Trump deploying troops to Cuba, noting that the president has so far avoided prolonged military engagement.

He assessed that a surgical strike like the one targeted against Maduro was also unlikely to happen, with top positions in the armed forces still dominated by direct appointees of former President Raul Castro, who served as the Communist Party’s top official until his retirement in 2021.

Instead, according to ACLED’s Breda, any approach to overthrowing the government could lead to a continuation of the current pressure campaign to foment dissent among a population plagued by shortages.

“But it remains to be seen whether Rubio can convince Trump that immigration, instability and violence on the island will have no serious consequences and will not have spillover effects,” Breida said.

What happens next?

Discerning Trump’s motivations may be akin to reading tea leaves, said Luis Perez, a longtime professor of Cuban history at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill who noted that the “deep historical context” of Trump’s current actions may help illuminate what happens next.

Perez pointed to U.S. policy before the 1959 Cuban Revolution, dating back to the U.S. military junta established in Cuba in the early 20th century, and the Monroe Doctrine of 1823, which first sought to maintain U.S. influence in Latin America.

“So, widening the screen and pulling back, one sees the long view of a remarkable continuity of policy that manifested itself in many iterations,” he told Al Jazeera. “But the thread that ties all these iterations together is the determination to deny Cuban sovereignty and self-determination.”

The Trump administration has recently articulated its goal of restoring U.S. “dominance” in the Western Hemisphere, which Trump and his allies call the “Donno Doctrine.”

“The U.S. political leadership wants Cubans to say ‘uncle,’ surrender, acquiesce,” Perez said. “It sounds simple, but somewhere deep in the American national psyche, it’s driving policy, especially in an administration now poised to redefine ‘the Don Doctrine.'”

At the same time, a prolonged stalemate could have unintended consequences for Washington, including pushing Cuba closer to Russia and China.

Leo Grande of American University explained that Russia, which is already under severe U.S. sanctions, has not increased oil supplies to Cuba in recent weeks, but may choose to do so as the United States continues to pressure. China and other regional allies could provide alternative forms of aid, freeing up funds for energy purchases.

“The greater the pressure the United States exerts on Cuba, the greater the threat the United States poses to Cuba, and the greater the incentive for Cuba to find asylum among U.S. adversaries,” he said.

ACLED’s Breda, for his part, pointed to the toll of a prolonged diplomatic stalemate that could lead to further difficulties for a long-blamed government. crackdown Regarding internal objections.

“The main risk is triggering a humanitarian crisis on the island, which could have an impact on outbound migrants and trigger a wave of unrest,” he said.

“Of course, this will test the government’s ability to stay in power, but it will also increase the likelihood that we will witness a new round of repression and mass arrests.”