Be wary of confirmation bias in U.S. November jobs report


On December 16, 2025, in Manhattan, New York City, a restaurant displayed a “Wanted” sign in the window.

Spencer Pratt | Getty Images

The US November jobs report has something for everyone.

Those convinced of a weakening economy will highlight a higher-than-expected unemployment rate in October and a shrinking number of jobs.

On the other hand, proponents of a strong economy will focus on November’s better-than-expected job growth, noting that the rise in the unemployment rate was largely due to labor force growth, as CNBC’s Jeff Cox notes.

Unable to make any clear judgment on labor market conditions, traders’ bets on a rate cut in January remained largely unchanged. According to statistics, the ratio is currently 25.5%, about 1 percentage point higher than before the release of the November employment report. CME FedWatch Tool.

“Today’s data paints a picture of an economy that is taking a breather,” said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. “Job growth continues, but cracks are forming. Consumers are still standing, but there is no rush.”

This ambivalence is also reflected in the market. Major U.S. stock indexes were mixed: S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.24% and 0.62% respectively, while Nasdaq Composite Index Recorded a modest gain of 0.23%, thanks to Tesla Shares closed at an all-time high.

Whether you’re bullish or bearish, Tuesday’s tea leaves will tell you what you want to see — but beware of confirmation bias.

What you need to know today

The S&P 500 fell for a third straight session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell on Tuesday, but the Nasdaq Composite checked. European Stoke 600 down 0.47%Defense stocks top losers.

U.S. job growth exceeded expectations. non-farm employment data A seasonally adjusted increase of 64,000 In November, it was better than the 45,000 forecast by Dow Jones. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021.

Tesla shares closed at a record high. Tesla shares rose 3.1% on Tuesday, closing at $489.88. Year-on-year increase of 21%. Investor CEO Elon Musk confirms company has Testing driverless robot axes.

Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. “The Venezuelan regime has been designated foreign terrorist organization”, the US President wrote on the stateside Truth Society on Tuesday.

(PRO) One eyewear brand emerges as AI winner? Citibank reiterated a “buy” rating on the name on Monday and said it would be a The leader in the AI ​​glasses market Annual growth will exceed 100% by 2034, the bank added.

at last…

On December 8, 2024, at Nanjing Forestry University in Jiangsu Province, candidates prepared to take the public subject written test of the 2025 Civil Service Examination.

Cost Photo | Noor Photo | Getty Images

Why China’s young people are flocking to government jobs in record numbers

As many as 3.7 million candidates across the country took China’s annual civil service examination last month, including graduates from the country’s top universities. But starting next year, only about one per cent are expected to secure a spot in 38,100 entry-level government jobs.

With the outlook for private jobs dimming due to the recession and deteriorating business confidence, many are willing to accept these possibilities. Unemployment rate of urban residents aged 16-24 in China It has remained above 17% since Julycompared to about 10% in the united states

— Anne Bao



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