itstargetnews
Usually a tourist attraction that draws millions of people a year, Tiananmen Square is nearly empty, closed as Beijing’s Great Hall of the People welcomes thousands of delegates from across China for the biggest political parliamentary meetings of the year.
Annual “Two sessions”, or liang hui, they come as the country grapples with a shrinking domestic economy and uncertainty as US President Donald Trump wages his war on tariffs – and as China loses a key ally in the Middle East.
While security in the center of the capital has already been stepped up in recent years, the police presence is even greater ahead of key meetings. Visitors’ faces are scanned at various checkpoints, and officers with sniffer dogs walk among the flamboyant Spring Festival lanterns and tourists on Qianmen Pedestrian Street. A temporary drone ban is in effect.
Chinese technological progress
The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), an advisory body with roughly 2,000 members, will begin its session on Wednesday, and the country’s legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC), with its 3,000 delegates, will meet the day after.
These delegates are not just politicians. Longtime attendees included basketball legend Yao Ming and Lei Jun, CEO and founder of consumer electronics company Xiaomi, both in attendance this year. Actor Jackie Chan was once in the CPPCC.
Although the meetings are the main platform for policy announcements and communication of economic goals, they are also a media spectacle covered by thousands of journalists. Premier Li Qiang is expected to submit the government’s annual report on the NPC — a blueprint for the country’s political priorities and socioeconomic goals — on Thursday.
Although the meetings are heavily orchestrated, what comes out of them, especially the NPC, will be an indicator of where the country is going – and this has implications on a global scale as China currently dominates the mining and processing of rare earth minerals and as the world races towards a higher-tech future. Actually, it was shamelessly exploiting that dominance in the customs battle with the United States.
“People will be watching to see what China prioritizes in terms of its economy and social growth,” said Jia Wang, a senior fellow at the University of Alberta’s China Institute.
It is in the Great Hall the last five-year plan will be officially adopted. First unveiled in the fall, it envisions China doubling down on its reliance on its own strengths, including its own technology in artificial intelligence and a transition to green energy, Wang said.
China is tightening controls on the export of rare earth elements. Andrew Chang reveals how the move gives China powerful leverage over the United States. Plus, how and why China is electrifying its economy in the name of oil sovereignty.
A stagnant economy
On Friday, Chinese President Xi Jinping presented two sessions at the Politburo, with a focus on enlargement economy in the next five years. While these goals could likely be the main focus of the meetings, it will be hard to ignore other issues about the country’s domestic economy.
Partly due to the downturn in the real estate market, China continues to suffer from low demand. Despite a five percent increase in GDP last year, The International Monetary Fund predicts growth of 4.5 percent in 2026. In its recent report, it said that despite China’s economy proving “resilient to multiple shocks”, it faces increasing challenges.
“(China’s technology focus) is not really a growth strategy per se,” said Logan Wright, partner and director of China market research at Washington, DC-based consultancy Rhodium Group, calling it more of a “security-focused strategy” because those industries don’t “employ a lot of people.”
Wright said China is relying on lower-priced exports as a result of “stagnant” domestic demand, leading to many countries complain about excess capacity about.
According to the Asia Society Policy Institute, the prime minister is expected to announce a a growth target of 4.5 to five percent at the NPC, a less ambitious goal than expected. The institute, based in Washington, called the target “yet again an incremental step in the long-term transition of leadership from rapid to high-quality growth.”
Iran’s oil exports
Another topic expected at this year’s meetings is the war in Iran. The state is not only an ally, but exports most of its oil in China.
“(Any disturbance in Strait of Hormuz) … will hurt not only China but other countries as well,” said Huiyao Wang, founder of the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing-based think-tank.
Wang said China had been resilient in the short term, but “it could be a problem in the long term.”
Xi’s purges
Although it won’t be talked about externally, reporters and observers will also be closely watching the seating arrangements at the NPC.
China’s top general, Zhang Youxia — currently under investigation — was fired earlier this year, one of the most high-profile purges after years of Xi’s efforts to crack down on what the party called “violations of discipline and law.”
“There are a lot of senior military officers … that we haven’t seen in a while,” said Dennis Wilder, the CIA’s former deputy assistant director for East Asia and the Pacific. “One of the things we will all be doing is trying to calculate the extent of the purges within the military over the last few months.”
There are rumors of personnel changes raise questions about how the military will operate in the future and what this could mean for stability in the region.
Customs wars and the rise of China
Ultimately, the mass meetings will be an opportunity to showcase China’s strengths, said Wang of the University of Alberta. After all, Beijing seems to have weathered Trump’s trade war pretty well.
“They believe they … came out victorious in that rivalry,” she said.
By then, the two sessions will take place after a parade of world leaders have met with Xi in recent months, including Prime Minister Mark Carney. Trump himself is scheduled to land in Beijing in a few weeks.
