After the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, energy analysts and investment banks expect oil prices to rise to $90 this week, with the possibility of reaching $100 a barrel if traffic disruptions in the crucial Strait of Hormuz persist.

In early Monday Asian trade, oil prices had already done so increased by 10% above $80 per barrel for Brent. Given the scale of the conflict and traffic already disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz, analysts expect more spikes at least this week.

Citigroup expects Brent Crude to trade in the market $80 to $90 per barrel for at least next week in the bank’s base case.

“Our baseline view is that the Iranian leadership changes, or that the regime changes enough to stop the war within 1-2 weeks, or that the U.S. decides to de-escalate after seeing a change in leadership and retrenchment of Iran’s missile and nuclear program over the same time frame,” Citigroup analysts wrote in a note published by Bloomberg.

Goldman Sachs sees an $18-a-barrel risk premium in real-time oil prices. However, if only 50% of the flows through the Strait of Hormuz will stop for a month, the war risk premium on prices would moderate to $4 a barrel, according to Goldman.

Wood Mackenzie sees a disruption in flows to take oil above $100 a barrel.

Related: Magnetic Wars: How the US plans to break China’s grip on the rare earths

“Higher oil and gas prices are certain as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens to disrupt 15% of global oil supply and 20% of global LNG supply, with oil prices potentially above $100/bbl if tanker flows are not quickly restored,” WoodMac said in a press release on Monday.

In the current scenario, oil prices above $100 a barrel are possible if traffic flows are not quickly restored, said Alan Gelder, vice president of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie.

Given the high uncertainty surrounding events in the Middle East, it is plausible that export flows will take several weeks to recover in the most optimistic scenario, in which the Iranian regime chooses to cooperate with the US, Gelder added.

“During this time, oil prices are at great risk to the upside,” Gelder said.

“The most recent comparison is during the early days of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, when fear of losing Russian supplies pushed oil prices above US$125/bbl.”

By Tsvetana Paraskova by Oilprice.com

More top reads from Oilprice.com

Oil price intelligence it brings you the signs before they become front page news. This is the same expert analysis read by veteran traders and policy advisors. Get it for free, twice a week, and you’ll always know why the market moves before everyone else.

Get the geopolitical intelligence, hidden inventory data, and market whispers that move billions, and we’ll send you $389 in premium energy intelligence, just for subscribing. Join over 400,000 readers today. Get immediate access by clicking here.