The S&P 500 ($SPX) ( SPY ) is down -0.02% today, the Dow Jones Industrials ($DOWI) ( DIA ) is down -0.19% and the Nasdaq 100 ($IUXX) ( QQQ ) is up +0.10%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -0.08% and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.13%.

Stock indexes gave up an early advance today and turned mixed, led by a sell-off in software companies. Also, today’s stronger-than-expected U.S. January payrolls report pushed bond yields higher and dampened expectations of further Fed interest rate cuts, weighing on stocks. The 10-year T-bill yield rose +3bps to 4.17%, and the chance of a Fed rate cut at next month’s FOMC meeting fell to 8% from 23% ahead of today’s payrolls report.

Stock indexes rose early today, with the S&P 500 hitting a two-week high and the Nasdaq 100 hitting a one-week high. Stocks were supported by a better-than-expected monthly U.S. jobs report that showed nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected last month to the highest level in 13 months, and the jobless rate unexpectedly eased, pointing to a stable labor market.

US MBA mortgage applications fell -0.3% in the week ending February 6, with a purchase mortgage sub-index down -2.4% and a refinance sub-index down 1.2%. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was unchanged from the previous week at 6.21%.

January US non-farm payrolls rose +130,000, beating expectations of +65,000 and the most in 13 months. January’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 4.3%, showing a stronger-than-expected labor market that was unchanged at 4.4%.

US average hourly earnings in January rose 3.7% year-on-year, just in line with expectations.

The benchmark annual revision to US payrolls for 2025 subtracted -862,000 jobs, a larger revision than expected -825,000.

Comments today from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid were bearish for stocks and bonds when he said, “In my view, further rate cuts risk allowing high inflation to persist further,” so the Fed should keep rates at a “somewhat restrictive” level.

This week’s markets will focus on corporate results and economic news. On Thursday, weekly initial jobless claims are expected to fall by -7,000 to 224,000. Additionally, January existing home sales are expected to decline -4.3% m/m to 4.16 million. On Friday, January’s CPI is expected to rise +2.5% year-on-year and January’s core CPI is expected to rise +2.5% year-on-year.

Fourth-quarter earnings season is in full swing, with more than half of the S&P 500 companies reporting results. Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 78% of the 319 companies in the S&P 500 reporting that they beat expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to increase +8.4% in 4Q, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Excluding tech megacap Magnificent Seven, fourth-quarter earnings are expected to rise +4.6%.

Markets are discounting an 8% chance of a -25bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Foreign markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.32%. China’s Shanghai Composite rose to a 1.5-week high and closed up +0.09%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 was not trading as Japan’s markets were closed today for the National Foundation Day holiday.

Interest rate

March 10-year T-bills (ZNH6) were down -7 ticks today. The yield on 10-year T-bills rose +2.8 bps to 4.170%. Mar T-bills fell from today’s 5-week high, and the 10-year T-bill yield rose from a 6-week low of 4.117%. T-notes erased early gains today and retreated on the stronger-than-expected January US payrolls report, which is bullish on Fed policy. Also, bullish comments from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid sent T-bill prices lower when he said the Fed should keep rates at a “somewhat tight” level. Also, supply pressures are low for T-bills as the Treasury will auction $42 billion of 10-year T-bills later today.

European government bond yields are falling today. The German 10-year bond yield fell to a two-month low of 2.791% and is down -0.8bp to 2.800%. The UK 10-year gilt yield fell to a two-week low of 4.480% and is down -2.0bp to 4.486%.

Swaps are discounting a 2% chance of the ECB cutting rates by -25bp at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movements

The strength of chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks is supported by the broader market. Micron Technology ( MU ) is up more than +6% to lead Nasdaq 100 gains, and Microchip Technology ( MCHP ) is up more than +4%. Additionally, Lam Research ( LRCX ), Western Digital ( WDC ), KLA Corp ( KLAC ), NXP Semiconductors NV ( NXPI ), and Texas Instruments ( TXN ) are up more than 3%. Also, Applied Materials ( AMAT ), Analog Devices ( ADI ), and Intel ( INTC ) are up more than 2%.

Software stocks are falling today and weighing on the global market. Atlassian (TEAM) is down more than -6% and Intuit (INTU) is down more than -5%. Also, Workday ( WDAY ) and Autodesk ( ADSK ) are down more than -4%, and Salesforce ( CRM ) is down more than -4% to lead the losers in the Dow Jones industrial sectors. Additionally, Microsoft ( MSFT ), Adobe ( ADBE ), and Datadog ( DDOG ) are down more than -2%.

Teradata ( TDC ) is up more than +22% after reporting fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of 74 cents, better than the consensus of 56 cents, and forecast full-year adjusted EPS of $2.55 to $2.65, stronger than the consensus of $2.50.

Vertiv Holdings ( VRT ) is up more than 21% after forecasting full-year net sales of $13.25 billion to $13.75 billion, well above the consensus of $12.43 billion.

Generac Holdings ( GNRC ) is up more than +16% to lead S&P 500 gains after forecasting an annual EBITDA margin of 18% to 19%, the midpoint above the 18.1% consensus.

Lattice Semiconductor ( LSCC ) is up more than +16% after forecasting first-quarter revenue of $158 million to $172 million, well above the consensus of $148.1 million.

Beta Technologies (BETA) is up more than 15% after Amazon.com disclosed a 5.1% stake in the company.

GlobalFoundries ( GFS ) is up more than 13% after reporting fourth-quarter net income of $1.83 billion, topping the consensus of $1.8 billion.

Cloudflare ( NET ) is up more than +8% after reporting fourth-quarter revenue of $614.5 million, better than the consensus of $591.4 million, and forecast full-year revenue of $2.79 billion to $2.8 billion, above the consensus of $2.74 billion.

Gilead Sciences ( GILD ) is up more than +5% after reporting fourth-quarter revenue of $7.93 billion, topping the consensus of $7.71 billion.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is up more than +2% after reporting a successful deployment of its next-generation BlueBird 6 satellite.

Mattel ( MAT ) is down more than -23% after reporting fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of 39 cents, weaker than the consensus of 54 cents, and forecast full-year adjusted EPS of $1.18 to $1.30, well below the consensus of $1.76.

Rapid7 Inc (RPD) is down more than -25% after forecasting annual revenue of $835 million to $843 million, weaker than the consensus of $869.8 million.

Lyft (LYFT) is down more than -14% after reporting Q4 rides of 243.5 million, well below the consensus of 255.87 million.

Robinhood Markets ( HOOD ) is down more than -11% to lead the S&P 500 losers after reporting fourth-quarter net income of $1.28 billion, below the consensus of $1.35 billion.

Moderna (MRNA) is down more than -10% after US regulators refused to review the company’s mRNA flu vaccine.

Earnings Reports (11/2/2026)

Albemarle Corp (ALB), Ameren Corp (AEE), AppLovin Corp (APP), Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO), Equinix Inc (EQIX), Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC), Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT), Humana Inc (HUM), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), Kraft Heinz Co/The (KHC), Marietta McDons Inc (KHCd’LM), Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI), NiSource Inc (NI), Paycom Software Inc (PAYC), Rollins Inc (ROL), Shopify Inc (SHOP), Smurfit Westrock PLC (SW), T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS), Westinghouse Air Brake Technol (WAB).

As of the date of publication, Rich Asplund had no positions (either directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com