Donald Trump will not attend the African Union’s 39th annual meeting, which kicks off the African Union Leaders’ Summit on Friday.

But his presence will still be felt as delegations from the 55 member states grapple with the new and disruptive realities of a second term for a U.S. president.

Trump’s historicity Cut foreign aidhis sweeping overhaul of U.S. trade policy, and his radical change Although he only mentions the continent lightly in his broader global agenda, immigration reception has a huge impact on Africa.

Amid the turmoil, the Trump administration has sought new bilateral deals with African countries, focusing on resource and security gains.

Carlos Lopez, a professor at the University of Cape Town in South Africa, told Al Jazeera: “U.S. policy toward Africa over the past year has created a level of uncertainty that will inevitably affect the way African leaders approach this summit.”

“There has been a clear shift towards a more transactional, security and transaction-focused approach with broad multilateral engagement and large-scale development planning.”

Many African leaders are seeking to strike a careful balance with the new leadership in the United States.

Lopez observed that officials were “hedging” while engaging the United States by “strengthening relations with China, Gulf states, European and intra-African institutions to avoid overreliance on any single partner.”

“In this sense, the defining theme of this summit is likely to be a recalibration on both sides: the United States tests a more transactional model of engagement, while African leaders say that partnerships must be reciprocal, predictable and respectful if they are to last,” Lopez said.

huge impact

The White House national security strategy released in November made only brief mention of Africa.

In the entire 29-page document, there are only three paragraphs that mention the African continent, at the bottom of the last page.

Some of the passages reiterated the United States’ long-term goal of countering Chinese influence. The section also highlights Trump’s recent push to end conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan.

But the document also hints at a broader vision for the U.S.-Africa relationship, moving away from a “foreign aid paradigm toward an investment and growth paradigm.”

This approach would be facilitated by new bilateral relationships with countries “committed to opening their markets to U.S. goods and services.” The United States, in turn, hopes to increase development efforts on the continent, particularly in accessing strategic energy and rare earth mineral resources.

However, this paradigm shift – away from foreign aid – has had a disproportionate impact on Africa and is likely to be a topic of discussion at Friday’s summit.

An estimated 26% of the continent’s foreign aid comes from the United States. The country’s direct foreign investment in Africa is estimated to be $47.47 billionmost of which comes from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).

But Trump has since disbanded USAID and canceled billions of dollars in aid programs. These moves come with a broader U.S. withdrawal from the United Nations. Experts say the impact is already being felt in Africa.

Belinda Archibong, a professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), told Al Jazeera: “We experienced the end of USAID, which had a huge, harmful negative impact on global health, particularly health funding in African countries – at least in the short term.”

The Center for Global Development estimates that current cuts in U.S. foreign aid could lead to 500,000 to 1 million deaths per year.

Evidence of Trump’s aid cuts can be seen in rising malnutrition deaths in northern Nigeria and Somalia, food insecurity in northeastern Kenya and malaria deaths in northern Cameroon, the group said in a December report.

Archibong also noted disruptions to HIV treatment and prevention efforts across the continent, an area of ​​concern for African Union members.

For example, Trump’s funding freeze resulted in the disruption of services for programs funded by the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which is credited with saving 25 million lives, primarily in Africa.

“So what’s the status of global health funding and health security after the U.S. withdraws?” Archibong said. “This will be a very, very critical point of discussion at the summit.”

With USAID on hold, Trump administration pursues at least 16 preliminary programs bilateral agreement Public health assistance, including work with Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mozambique and Kenya. It calls its new aid model its “America First Global Health Strategy.”

Critics, however, worry that such deals are subject to “deal pressure” that could lead to corruption and cast doubt on their long-term sustainability.

“Strategic ambiguity?”

For Everisto Benyela, a political science professor at the University of South Africa in Pretoria, Trump is likely to be the “elephant in the room” at the two-day African Union summit.

“In his absence, this summit will note his presence,” he told Al Jazeera.

Trump’s tariff policies also have widespread impacts on the continent. In April, 20 countries faced tariffs ranging from 11% to 50%, and another 29 countries faced a base tariff of 10%.

Experts say the nature of the tariffs adds to uncertainty ahead of this year’s summit.

Increased personalized tariffs disproportionately affect countries with specialized export industries that rely in part on protectionist trade policies to keep their economies afloat.

For example, the Kingdom of Lesotho, a landlocked country of about 2 million people in South Africa, initially faced tariffs of up to 50% and was at risk ravage its clothing industry. Meanwhile, Madagascar, known for its vanilla exports, was hit with an initial 47% tariff.

The tax rates in Lesotho and Madagascar were later reduced to 15%.

Trump’s decision this month to temporarily extend the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, a trade agreement dating back to 2000, brings some relief.

It allows eligible countries to export 1,800 products to the United States duty-free, including fossil fuels, auto parts, textiles and agricultural products. However, the extension only lasts until the end of 2026.

Trump’s decision to stop processing immigrant visas from 75 countries, including 26 African countries, heightened tensions. This represents nearly half of the African Union member states.

Three African countries have launched reciprocal policies, prohibit U.S. Citizen Travel.

Still, Benyela expected most leaders at this week’s summit to try to maintain “strategic ambiguity” with an eye on arranging future deals.

“The African Union therefore does not want to make policy pronouncements that contradict Trump,” he said.

“Their goal is to strike a strategic balance between appeasing Trump, appeasing (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and maintaining relations with (Chinese President) Xi Jinping.”

“Standard Actor”

López, meanwhile, predicted the summit would include “subtle but pointed language emphasizing international law, multilateralism and coherence.”

He noted that some African countries have taken “outspoken stances” on “global hot spots,” including Israel’s U.S.-backed genocidal war in Gaza and recent U.S. military operations in Venezuela.

For example, the governments of South Africa, Namibia and Ghana have led the charge in condemning the US kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, calling it a flagrant violation of international law.

At the same time, South Africa take the lead International Court of Justice (ICJ) genocide case against Israel.

“I do hope that the theme of international justice will continue, not necessarily as an open confrontation but as a reminder that Africa increasingly sees itself as a normative actor on the global stage,” Lopez said.

He explained that recent engagements between the United States, South Africa and Nigeria “illustrated” the tightrope many African Union member states face in the Trump era.

In South Africa, Trump claimed that white Afrikaans farmers were being persecuted in a “white genocide,” a position rejected by Cyril Ramaphosa’s government and several senior Afrikaans officials.

But even after an extraordinary event full of lies confrontation In the Oval Office, Ramaphosa’s government is seeking to strike a new deal with the Trump administration while strengthening ties with China, its largest trading partner.

Trump also made dubious claims about the persecution of Christians in Nigeria. In December, the United States cracked down on a group it said was linked to the Islamic State (ISIS) in the country’s restive northeast, promising more bombings if the militants “continue killing Christians.”

Nigeria’s government responded cautiously to the U.S. attack, describing it as a “coordinated operation” while rejecting the idea that religion was at the root of the violence.

It has also capitalized on Trump’s interest in the region to bolster security cooperation and intelligence sharing with the United States to combat ongoing insecurity in the country’s north.

“Both countries have experienced a more hostile tone from Washington. However, both countries have used this friction to diversify their partnerships and assert strategic autonomy,” Lopez said.

“This reflects a broader balancing act underway across the continent.”