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The prospect of a U.S. attack on Iran has roiled oil prices this year, but analysts told CNBC an attack would require a greater military commitment and be more complex than the U.S. is prepared for.
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Tensions are high and despite talks held in Oman last week, the two sides remain at an impasse. US President Donald Trump has escalated pressure on the Iranian regime following a brutal crackdown on anti-government protesters across the country last month.
Trump said this week that he was considering sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East even as Washington and Tehran prepared to resume talks. On Tuesday, he threatened Iran if it did not agree to Washington’s demands, which range from halting the country’s nuclear enrichment to curtailing Tehran’s ballistic missile program.
The United States deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in January. That brings the number of guided-missile destroyers in the area to six, but analysts say it’s still not enough to topple the regime. Making good on his “get tough” threats would mean protracted conflict in a region Trump is wary of.
Alireza Ahmadi, executive fellow at the Center for Security Policy in Geneva, told CNBC: “U.S. forces in the region are insufficient to support a major long-term military campaign in Iran, which is necessary to achieve any major military objectives.”
Trump has also stepped up pressure on the Islamic Republic, imposing financial pressure on an economy already crippled by sanctions. Just last month, he swear Imposing tariffs on any country that obtains any goods or services from Iran.
But it’s unclear what will happen next. Ali Vaez, director of the Crisis Group’s Iran program, told CNBC that “President Trump is notoriously unpredictable,” but added that Trump realized that “the Iran problem does not lend itself to a clean, easy military option.”
Can the United States still attack Iran?
Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told CNBC that “the cost of not attacking Iran will be enormous,” adding that if he doesn’t attack Iran, “Trump’s legacy will be as a president who enabled Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”
“The president is in a difficult situation and his choices are not good, and it’s a very dangerous moment right now,” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy last week. McNally added that the country’s ballistic missile program means “we have to increase our efforts because Iran is quite powerful.”
What options does Trump have?
Trump said last week that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei should be “very worried.”
But analysts warn that action against Iran’s leadership will not be anything like the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
“The Iranian government is not Venezuela,” Alireza Ahmadi said, adding that if the United States removed Khamenei, “a replacement would be chosen immediately and the military would effectively run the country for the foreseeable future.”
Power in Iran is concentrated around Khamenei. Although there is a president, the political, military and foreign policies of the Islamic Republic are determined by him. Khamenei has held supreme power for the past three decades with the assistance of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, which help implement the regime’s policies and play an important role in its foreign policy.
Rubin told CNBC that if the United States is able to oust Khamenei and find a regime official to replace him, the fate of the IRGC remains an “open question.”
Iranian believers held a protest after Friday prayers in downtown Tehran, Iran, on June 13, 2025, holding portraits and flags of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to condemn Israeli attacks on Iran.
Morteza Nikubazir | Noor Photos | Getty Images
“The United States cannot change a regime through air power alone without any ground power (U.S. or Iran). It can only change a regime into something else, which could be worse, or turn Iran into another failed state,” Watts told CNBC.
Ahmadi said regime change in Iran “would require at least an Iraq war-level military commitment, which Trump is unlikely to favor.” Between 2003 and 2011, 4,500 U.S. armed forces personnel were killed in Iraq.
The White House claimed after last year’s attacks on three major nuclear facilities that Iran’s nuclear facilities “Erase it.” Iran moves to quickly repair damage to ballistic missile launch site, but according to analysis New York Times, “Limited repairs” were made to major U.S. nuclear facilities that were hit.
Iran has long claimed it does not have any plans to develop nuclear weapons. Iran has offered to limit its uranium enrichment to lower levels as talks between Washington and Tehran restart. The United States has opposed any uranium enrichment activities by Iran since the collapse of the 2018 nuclear deal.
While the United States has vowed to attack Iran if it resumes its nuclear and missile programs, it is unclear whether those sites will be attacked again. “Both options could lead to excessive Iranian retaliation, which could turn the confrontation into a regional conflagration,” Vaez said.
potential Iranian retaliation
Iran has vowed to retaliate against U.S. bases in the region if Washington launches an attack.
“Iran is betting that the United States does not have enough missile interceptors and THAAD systems to protect its vast military bases and facilities in the region and in Israel,” Ahmadi told CNBC.
The United States has approximately 40,000 military personnel in the Middle East. It has bases in the Arabian Gulf, including U.S. Naval Forces Central Command in Bahrain, al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which was attacked by Iran last summer, and Al Dhafra Air Base south of Abu Dhabi.
In this video screenshot, missiles and anti-aircraft interceptors light up the night sky in Doha after Iran launched an attack on U.S. forces at Al Udeid Air Base in Doha, Qatar, on June 23, 2025.
Getty Images
“There is no doubt that Iran will target U.S. bases in Iraq, Syria, the Gulf and its naval assets. It may also target Israel. The remnants of its proxies may also join in,” Vaez told CNBC.
Ahmadi added that Iran appears to be “preparing for a prolonged military confrontation lasting a week or even months. There appears to be a sense among Iranian leadership that the United States has overestimated its influence and that a major war may be needed to correct these assumptions.”
