new analysis U.S. Census Data Show U.S. states heading into key midterm elections this year paid more than $134 billion in tariffs during the period president donald trump Widespread trade tariffs were implemented from March 2025 to November last year. Overall, states paid a total of $199 billion in tariffs during that period, U.S. Census data compiled by Trade Partnership Worldwide show.

Trump calls out affordability A “democracy scam” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant recently testified before Congress that tariffs “Will not cause inflation. “

But Trump’s tariffs and affordability are expected to be factors in the upcoming midterm election cycle. Recent CNBC survey data Data from U.S. consumers and pricing show Affordability issues are real Many voters are unhappy with the economy. January poll From The New York Times and University of Siena found that 54% of voters opposed Trump’s tariffs.

“We Pay Tariffs” Dan Anthony, executive director of the Alliance of Small Businesses and president of Global Trade Partnership, said, “Americans struggling with affordability rightly blame tariffs for rising prices on many everyday purchases.” “The president could eliminate tens of billions of dollars in taxes from states that will decide the 2026 election. He just doesn’t want to do that,” Anthony said.

Anthony said his coalition is highlighting the new data to counter claims that tariffs are “paid by other companies” and “paid to Americans,” and to “educate the public about how tariffs actually work and who pays for them: American small businesses, workers and consumers.”

Major States and Tariff Acts

• California: $38 billion
• Texas: $21 billion
• Michigan: $13 billion
• Georgia: $12 billion
• Illinois: $9.6 billion
• Ohio: $6.5 billion
• Pennsylvania: $6.3 billion
• North Carolina: $5 billion
• South Carolina: $5.2 billion
• Kentucky: $4 billion

This year, all 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives and 33 seats in the U.S. Senate are up for grabs election. Republicans hold slim majorities in both houses of Congress. Democrats need to pick up four seats to win a Senate majority. To retain control of the House, Republicans cannot lose more than two seats.

Midterm election primaries will begin on March 3, with voters heading to the polls in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas.

Small businesses across the U.S. hit hard by tariffs

Many small business owners in states across the U.S. are speaking out about the impact of tariffs on their businesses, some as part of a new campaign led by YouTube videos called ” Small businesses oppose tariffs The campaign launched on Wednesday to raise awareness.

Shelby County, Ohio, farmer Chris Gibbs, who grows corn, soybeans, wheat, alfalfa hay and runs a 90-calf operation, said the tariffs hit him twice as hard. “My operating costs are skyrocketing,” Gibbs said. “Tariffs on steel, aluminum and lumber increase the cost of everything I do. From building buildings, barns, to buying machinery, trailers, wheels and parts, even my fertilizer,” he said.

Gibbs said the trade war has also affected his ability to sell crops.

“In 2018, this president destroyed the trade relationship, and in that moment, much like Carter in 1980 with the Russia embargo, we became an unreliable supplier. That’s where we are now, and we haven’t recovered from it,” Gibbs said. “Brazil is now China’s main supplier of soybeans. Trump pushed President Xi into Brazil’s arms and they have never left.”

The promised agricultural purchases were an important part of the first trade war between China and the United States. China failed to fulfill its agricultural product purchase obligations. 2025, China pledges to boost ordersbut trade data showed no significant recovery.

Noel Hacegaba, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, told CNBC that the port’s soybean exports to China were down 95% year-over-year.

“Most of the soybeans consumed in China now come from places like Brazil,” Hasegaba said. “The United States produces about 20% of the world’s soybeans. Brazil currently produces 40%, in part because China has shifted sourcing to Brazil. As a major export gateway, we are doing everything we can to help our exporters ship their products more efficiently, but we need certainty and clarity in trade policy to ensure products can be shipped,” he said.

Gibbs says Trump promises tariff aid to farmers This is a slap in the face to all farmers and Americans. “If these checks do come, that’s money that I and all American consumers will spend on tariffs,” Gibbs said.

Saline, Mich.-based Hiblow USA, which specializes in linear air pumps and septic tank aerators for wastewater treatment, is widely used in residential wastewater treatment systems serving rural and suburban homes across the United States. The company’s tariff bill will reach $1.2 million by 2025. President Tim Smith said uncertainty over the duration of the tariffs forced him to halt expansion plans. The southeast Michigan company has 10 employees, and the additional location will create three to four new jobs. “We’re a small business, and while some may think there aren’t a lot of jobs, they are good-paying jobs,” Smith said.

“We only pass on 40 percent of the cost to the customer,” Smith said. “It’s become a competition among companies to see who can hold on, burn more cash and absorb these tariffs. But I don’t think anyone can hold on long term and absorb the tariffs,” he added.

The company imports products from the Philippines. Although the country has yet to reach an agreement with the United States on tariffs on Mondayrepresentatives of various countries discussed in Manila the imposition of a 19% tariff on Philippine goods.

Smith said changes in tariff rates have also put additional pressure on his customs brokers. “We had to renew the customs bond two or three times because we needed to add more money to the bond,” Smith said. “It delays us getting some containers because the bond is in limbo. Without a customs bond, you can’t handle anything.”

Customs bonds, also known as surety bonds, guarantee the payment of duties and taxes imposed on imported goods by the importer. this The value of these bonds and related collateral soared At the same time, the Trump administration is imposing tariffs. If the deposit is insufficient, the importer cannot obtain title to his shipment.

even If the Supreme Court rules Smith said many of Trump’s tariffs are illegal and require refunds to businesses, with a decision likely to be made on February 20. The Trump administration has another set of tariffs Wait, so there will be no cash flow relief.

“Our money is always returned through customs without a hitch,” Smith said. “Sometimes it takes up to a year, but there’s certainly a framework to do that. But what I can tell you is we’re certainly not going to have any business plan based on a ruling that we can recover money. If it’s ruled illegal, there will be more tariffs.”

In New York, toy store owner Jennifer Bergman closed her mother’s West Side Kids company after 44 years because of tariffs. “Most of our toys are made in China, so the tariff costs took over our business,” Bergman said. “We keep getting emails from suppliers about price increases, so we have to increase our prices.”

One example is her scooter order. Bergman said the company typically sells $50,000 in scooters a year. After the tariffs, she didn’t have a scooter for less than $200, which affected not only her sales but her inventory. “The scooter price went up $30,” Bergman said. “I got a call from my scooter company and they told me they were rerouting containers to Canada because of the tariffs and they were no longer bringing them in until the tariffs were lowered,” she added.

Bergman said that in late May, she started looking at her numbers and realized she wouldn’t be able to pay her rent in July. “June is usually one of my busiest months…but June was just killer. I couldn’t afford inventory to sell. I called my landlord, who luckily we have a 44-year relationship with, and I said, I have to close.”

Bergman’s store closed at the end of July.

In Tempe, Arizona, Brick Road Coffee opened during the 2021 pandemic. Gabe Hagen, co-founder and CEO of the coffee shop and roasting company, said he’s now grateful Coffee tariffs have been liftedbut he still buys coffee at a higher tariff price.

“We order 4,000 pounds of coffee per month, supplying primarily two stores, and are facing increased costs due to tariffs on green coffee and other supplies,” Hagen said. “While the coffee shop absorbed the cost, unfortunately for our roasting business we had to increase our prices.”

Before the tariffs, wholesale customers were paying about $10 per pound for roasted coffee beans, Hagen said. Now, customers are paying about $13.50 a pound, which he hopes has peaked.

There have been significant, rapid changes to coffee tariffs. The initial 10% to 50% tariff range ranges from higher tariffs in Brazil (50%) to lower tariffs in India (25%), Vietnam (20%) and Indonesia (19%).

Most of the tariffs, including those on Brazil, were lifted in a November 2025 executive order, but Hagen said they had left a lingering impact. His company reduced tariff expenses by delaying store expansions and purchasing baking equipment before the tariffs took effect. “We’re entering an era where cash is king, and as a small business, I don’t have a lot of cash,” Hagen said. “So I’m having to cut back on expenses to try to preserve and give me as much runway as possible to deal with the uncertainty.”

Hagen said his company’s sales activities undermined consumer confidence. “We’re seeing our average ticket price go down,” he said. “While our foot traffic has remained relatively stable year over year, our total revenue is actually down year over year. Consumers are tightening their wallets and they’re not buying add-ons like waffles. Our fourth quarter was terrible. It was the worst in the four years we’ve been open,” he said.

Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, said, “The post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) from previous inflation spikes is coming back. If it’s not fully passed on to consumers, businesses will absorb it through lower profit margins. The pain from tariffs is real, just ask any business and/or consumer. Inflation is a major economic pain point, so I think this will definitely be a key issue.”