Afghanistan’s journey to the 2026 T20 World Cup is turning into a nightmare. The team that proudly reached the semi-finals of the 2024 World Cup now stand on the brink of a shock group stage exit. The progress of the ongoing T20 World Cup 2026 under the leadership of Rashid Khan is not simple.

Afghanistan’s Ahmedabad double super clash heartbreaking

Their latest heartbreak comes against South Africa in Ahmedabad on February 11 in their must-win Group D game. Afghanistan chased 24 points in the second super over but failed to cross the line. It was a crushing defeat, especially after the Afghan stars put on such a fierce fight.

Before this heartbreak, Rashid Khan’s side had already lost their first Group D match against New Zealand in Chennai on February 8 by five wickets. Two games, two losses, now they are under huge pressure and almost ruined their hopes of Super 8.

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Super 8 has little hope of promotion

Although Afghanistan currently ranks third in the Group D standings, their hopes of promotion are still very slim. Their path to the ongoing 2026 T20 World Cup Super 8 remains open but fraught with conditions and calculations.

In the first scenario, Afghanistan must win its two remaining group-stage matches against the UAE on February 16 and Canada on February 19. Simply winning may not be enough. They need to win by a big margin so their net run rate can jump significantly.

Net run rate may become a deciding factor later. Afghanistan also needs help from other teams. New Zealand or South Africa must lose the remaining two games in Group D. If that happens, Afghanistan can take four points from four games.

In this case, one of the top teams also deserves four points. Second place in the Super 8 will then be decided based on net run rate. This is the only realistic window left in Afghanistan.

Rain could bring 2026 T20 World Cup to an early end

There is also a significant risk that their season could end before the final two games. New Zealand and South Africa will face off in Ahmedabad on February 14.

Also read: ‘We put in all our efforts’ – Rashid Khan breaks silence after double over heartbreak

If a Group D game is canceled due to rain, both teams will receive one point each. This would give them five points each. In that case, Afghanistan will be officially eliminated from the tournament.

Rashid Khan backs Afghanistan to rebound stronger

Rashid Khan, meanwhile, said it would be very difficult to cheer up the team after such a painful defeat. But the captain added that Afghanistan will come back stronger with a clear and smart mindset.

Rashid said after the game: “It’s very tough. You’ve worked really hard over the last year and a half just to win this game and get to the next round. It’s disappointing. It’s hard to keep them like this. But, you still have to step up. Anytime you represent your country it’s a huge proud moment.”

You have to fight for your pride. People back home expect us to win a lot of games. We didn’t get off to the ideal start in the World Cup. What a disappointment. But I’ll try to keep them as long as possible. We’ll come into the next game with a strong head and a smart head. “