When assessing Tottenham Hotspur’s chances of being relegated this season, there is a clear trajectory. And now, that possibility has never been greater.

Turning to the betting markets is always a reliable pointer at times like this. They have a habit of shutting out noise and emotions. They don’t involve romance or fame.

They deal with cold, difficult probabilities. Now they’re bringing a bit of frisson to the white areas of north London.

It has been one-way traffic since the start of the year with Tottenham’s declining odds and dire decline.

100/1. 66/1. 33/1. 10/1.

Spurs are currently priced at 5/1 to be relegated from the Premier League with Sky Bet. The implied probability is 16%.

Isn’t it just like Tottenham winning the Champions League but being relegated?

But this dilemma is no joke.

With only 12 games left, Tottenham are already in relegation trouble. They are more likely to be relegated than Leeds United and Sunderland. Who could have foreseen this when the first goal was kicked in August?

Such a price is based on performance figures, remaining fixtures, underlying statistics and – crucially for Tottenham – the quality of those around him. This is where their problems deepen.

West Ham United are leading the Premier League table.

They have 10 points from their past six games – fourth-most among all teams. If not for stoppage time against Chelsea and Manchester United, that number would have been 13. This is a West Ham United team that has been completely transformed by Nuno Espirito Santo.

Although some late swings went against them, the team looked united in front of fans who saw signs of survival. The London Stadium was rocked in the second half of Tuesday night’s 1-1 draw with Manchester United in a way not seen since a European night under David Moyes three years ago.

“There’s a team spirit here and they can hold on,” Sky Sports’ Chris Reddy reported. “The players were walking around the pitch and applauding the fans and they genuinely believed they could stay up.”

Thomas Frank, meanwhile, has managed just two wins in Tottenham’s last 16 Premier League games. If it looks like a downgrade and quacks like a downgrade, then it probably is a downgrade.

“Tottenham are in a relegation battle,” summed up Sky Sports’ Michael Bridge. “The team has no confidence and no key players are close to returning.”

What makes this threat a serious one is that the Premier League’s bottom teams refuse to play by the usual script when it comes to survival.

The Hammers’ recent surge has strained the safety line. It injects a level of competitiveness that has the potential to raise the bar for survival even higher than usual. This is starting to look like a season where even 38 points won’t be enough to be safe – 40 points might be the real goal.

This is dangerous territory for any party caught in a cycle of inconsistency.

For a club that regularly dines at top tables, this is not only uncomfortable reading but downright alarming.