The possibilities of Jesus Christ’s return in 2026 just increased in Polymarket. While you might think it’s because we’re clearly causing the End Times at any cost, or maybe a Vatican insider has received word from on high that he’s coming back and wants to be ahead of the market, it’s actually much more than that. Ted Frank, the Director of Litigation at the Hamilton Lincoln Law Institute, pointed out on Twitter that the real reason is that a second market is formed betting on if the probability of the return of Christ rises above 5%, and now it is better to push the odds to try to cash out their other bets.

A fair amount is made of bets on Christ’s return in these markets, in part because most people see it as free money. Bloomberg reported in the same bet for 2025, it is known that a total of $3.3 million has been placed in the market for the second coming of Jesus. At the end of the year, the odds of “yes” were running around 3%—but if you entered that market in April, Bloomberg reported, you effectively earned an annual profit of 5.5%, a better return than a US Treasury bill.

that the bet is back for 2026and the odds of “yes” mostly hang around the 3% mark. But in the early days of February, that number began to rise. The reason: a new market. It allows people to bet on whether the market for Jesus Christ’s return before 2027 will exceed 5% odds on February 17. The odds on that are pretty good—there’s about a 25% chance of making money.

Given the opportunity for such a smooth return in such a short timeframe, the better ones in that secondary market are financially motivated to start betting “Yes” on the original market and run that market segment all the way beyond the 5% level. They haven’t succeeded—they’ve pushed the level up to 4.7% but haven’t gotten over the hump. They still have a whole week to succeed.

Even the people at Polymarket were a bit stunned by the whole thing. In the comments of the secondary market, one user clearly said, “This market is 100% manipulation.” Another user helpfully explained, “It’s kind of a bet on weather (sic) there will be a successful maneuver or not.” Wonder if the regulators have any thoughts on that distinction. unfortunately, we will never know.