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Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight into the Premier League midweek schedule.
Chelsea v Leeds United, Tuesday 7.30pm
One of my favorite betting angles this season is when the center fouls the center back.
This Premier League season has been a heartbreaking one. The numbers and eye tests tell the same story, that the league has returned to directness with a greater emphasis on winning first contact. When this happens, centers don’t just score goals, they start fouling.
The result? The center backs were fouled more often than the market expected.
João Pedro has been revitalized under Liam Roniol and has been outstanding as a center forward while also drawing plenty of fouls. Made six starts at center under new coach. He committed eight fouls. Joe Rodon is on the front line in terms of fouls and he is a massive 4/1 with Sky Bet +2 fouled.
Score prediction: 2-1
Everton v Bournemouth, Tuesday 7.30pm
Everton midfielder James Garner looks strong in this match with Sky Bet at 11/4 with +2 fouls. Garner has hit that mark in 10 of the 20 games he has started in midfield this season, showing he is no stranger to stepping in at crucial moments.
Meanwhile, Bournemouth’s Alex Scott has been a magnet for fouls, having committed 14 in his past eight games. Garner and Scott’s battle in the middle of the park should see the Everton man provide some challenges as he attempts to disrupt Scott’s rhythm.
Score Prediction: 2-1 | Jones Knows Best Bet: James Garner +2 Fouls (11/4 at Sky Bet)
Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle, Tuesday 7.30pm
Just two wins from 16 Premier League games left Tottenham Hotspur just six points from safety and suddenly in decline.
Sky Bet didn’t screw up either. Tottenham’s odds are now just 10 to 1.
If they don’t find form quickly and West Ham continue to win, relegation could become very real. This matter is getting serious.
Thomas Frank’s Spurs are now 10/1 to be relegated
Tottenham made an easy comeback at 19/10, with Sky Bet having won just one of their last 11 home games in the Premier League.
Meanwhile, when push comes to shove, Eddie Howe usually delivers a result for Newcastle, weaponizing the frustrations of the home fans in the hope that the north London faithful will turn on their team. That’s why a fast start is expected, which puts Newcastle United’s half-time/full-time odds at 5/2, with Sky Bet a smart way to boost your odds of an away win.
Score prediction: 1-2
West Ham United vs Manchester United, Tuesday 8.15pm
One of the biggest bets on the midweek card is Crysensio Summerville’s shot at Evens with Sky Bet. The winger has been a thorn in the side of Premier League defenses of late, with nine shots on target in his last six games.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s system clearly suits Somerville, giving him the freedom to get into dangerous positions and create big moments. Against a Manchester United team that showed weakness on the wings, expect Somerville to have another shot on goal.
Score prediction: 2-2 | Jones knows the best bet: Crysensio Summerville +1 shots on target (even with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Brighton, Wednesday 7:30pm
Brighton’s wobble is a huge betting advantage worth taking advantage of. Just one win in 12 games isn’t a blip, it’s a crisis – but the market still sees them as a dangerous side. Villa have a reputation for being brutal and efficient at home, offering Sky Bet top points on 10/11. Judging from what Brighton has to offer, that looks generous.
Fabian Huerzeller’s side are struggling for creativity and confidence. His career as Brighton manager may be coming to an end.
Score prediction: 2-0
Crystal Palace v Burnley, Wednesday 7.30pm
Jorgen Strand Larsen performed like a man who has something to prove on his debut. It wasn’t always pretty or easy on the eyes, but he made his presence felt in the 1-0 win over Brighton. Three fouls and a yellow card on his first appearance showed the forward was clearly keen to express himself and make a statement.
Strand Larsson averages around 1.9 fouls per game in the Premier League. That’s almost two yellow card-worthy moments every 90 minutes. He carries the aura of a striker and plays like he’s sooner or later overtaking, mistaking a challenge or lashing out in frustration. Just like he did at Brighton when he stopped an attack by cynically tugging on his shirt.
Jorgen Strand Larsen is priced at 19/2 to book via Sky Bet
Strand Larsen is a striker – of course – but a striker who is sensitive, combative and clearly wants to leave a mark. Sky Bet’s odds are very good at 19/2.
Score Prediction: 2-0 | Jones knows the best bet: Jorgen Strand Larsen will card (19/2 at Sky Bet)
Manchester City v Fulham, Wednesday 7.30pm
This version of Guardiola’s City always gives you a chance. This is a far cry from their controlling, ball-obsessed style.
Fulham, meanwhile, are not here to make up the numbers. Both teams have scored in 12 of their last 15 games and have done so in each of their past four visits to the Etihad Stadium. It’s not luck, it’s a proven blueprint for hitting City’s counter-attacks, exploiting mistakes and playing with freedom.
City will score – of course they will – but Fulham will probably join them. Sky Bet’s bet is 4/5 that both teams will score.
Score prediction: 2-1
Nottingham Forest v Wolves, Wednesday 7.30pm
Morgan Gibbs-White and Wolves. Don’t get me wrong, there is hate out there.
Every touch of the ball will be scrutinized, every run ridiculed and if he scores, emotions will explode.
Gibbs-White isn’t shy either. He’s combative, passionate and at odds of 10/1 with Sky Bet to score and pick up a card that screams value. Picture the scene: Gibbs-White’s goal sparks celebrations in what has become a very important game for Forest. The shirt may come off, triggering the booking.
Combine the two via the Sky Bet BuildABET feature and 10/1 looks like a great deal.
Score prediction: 2-1
Sunderland v Liverpool, Wednesday 8.15pm
If you want a betting market that rewards understanding a football game rather than predicting perfection, then the Get Fouled market is the way to go.
Bookmaker pricing deviates significantly from averages and historical data. What they struggle to fully explain is their role in a given game. It’s like a foul-heavy center against a tricky center back. That’s what we have here.
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Gary Neville believes VAR “doesn’t need to intervene” after Rayan Cherki’s goal was disallowed and Dominik Szoboszlai was sent off in the dramatic finale of Liverpool’s defeat to Manchester City.
It wasn’t that Van Dijk lost control or his composure. This happens rarely.
It’s about Van Dijk being dragged into a very specific matchup against his counterpart, Brian Bobbey, who is not exactly a crafty centre-forward. His game is built on confrontation.
He averaged 1.8 fouls per 90 minutes at Ajax last season, a huge number for a striker playing in a possession-oriented team. Even more telling is that he’s bullied big-name opponents with nine fouls in his last six games. Van Dijk is priced at 10/11 with Sky Bet winning +1 fouls.
Score prediction: 1-1
Brentford v Arsenal, Thursday 8.15pm
Arsenal are scoring goals at a ruthless pace and conceding goals at times, making it very, very difficult for anyone trying to keep them quiet. When the odds are hovering around even money, this is the perfect cocktail to back over the 2.5 goal line. They have averaged 3.4 goals per 90 minutes in their last 13 games, including 10 games with more than 2.5 goals.
Even without Brentford’s contributions, Arsenal could easily cover this line. They have scored three or more goals in 10 of their last 13 games. This is ruthless offensive form from a team that knows how to punish mistakes.
Score prediction: 1-3 | Best bet Jones knows: Over 2.5 goals (even with Sky Bet)
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