The commodities market has spent the better part of two years grinding to the bottom, offering little relief to brokers operating on thin margins and tighter credit. But as early signs suggest the cycle may finally be tilting to the upside, recent earnings calls from RXO and CH Robinson offer a timely warning: A rising market doesn’t automatically mean an easier one.

In fact, the transition phase may be where financial and operational stress becomes most acute.

RXO’s fourth-quarter results showed the financial fragility of the brokers. The company pointed to continued pricing pressure, margin compression and the challenge of balancing carrier costs with still cautious carrier demand.

John Kingston of FreightWaves writes, “These mixed results show what happens when the freight market suddenly gets stronger, as it did in the last four to five weeks of the quarter, and 3PLs face the reality of filling previously reserved capacity with higher truckload rates.”

Runners often struggle more not at the end of the cycle, but as it begins to move. RXO’s comment fits this pattern. Capacity remains available on many lanes, but is no longer uniformly cheap. Spot rates can move quickly, contract rates lag, and brokers caught between the two are forced to make uncomfortable decisions about margin sacrifice versus customer retention.

This tension is likely to intensify as 2026 unfolds.

One of the clearest risks in a bullish market is the strain on working capital. Because carrier prices are faster than carrier prices, brokers are being asked to float higher payments while they wait for contract adjustments to catch up. For older, uppercase players, this is manageable.

RXO recognized this dynamic indirectly by emphasizing discipline around pricing and lane selection. The message was subtle but important: it’s not worth chasing all the goods in one shift. Growth without margin is still just risk. As reported on RXO’s Q4 call, “Fundline GAAP net loss was $46 million in the fourth quarter. This was up from a GAAP net loss of $25 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 and $14 million in the third quarter.”

Another point of stress is operational. Increased volatility rewards brokers with strong carrier relationships and real-time lane-level price visibility. Those who rely too heavily on static models or national averages are more likely to misprice the commodity and pay for it later.

The contrast with CH Robinson is telling.

Despite the constant headwinds, Robinson’s earnings calls had a markedly different tone. While management acknowledged the challenging environment, the company highlighted productivity gains, cost discipline and improved execution. The market responded accordingly, sending stocks higher even as freight fundamentals remained mixed.

CH Robinson, chief financial officer, Damon Lee, said US group Surfact Transport “is still on a very good trajectory to reach that 40% target. We make a profit growth and earnings quality decision on whether we continue to expand margins at this time or reinvest it in demonstrable growth.”

The difference is not simply scale, although scale helps. Robinson has weathered the recession restructuring operations, investing in technology and reducing staff to better align with demand. This has given it flexibility in the face of a turnaround, the ability to absorb short-term margin pressure without losing the strategic base.

CH Robinson’s XEO Dave Bozeman said: “There could be a headcount ‘shift’ because we’re shifting to a more customer-centric system that’s largely automated through AI processes that have a lot of friction and a lot of entry-level staff. And part of that, we’re not filling.”

As recovery signals build, brokers would be wise to focus less on the overall rate increases and more on the underlying mechanics. Lane-by-lane volatility, customer mix and carrier loyalty will matter more than the general direction of the market.

Equally important is credit exposure. Shippers who are slow to adjust rates upward may also be slow to pay, exacerbating cash flow challenges. Brokers who tighten credit terms or proactively manage accounts receivable may find themselves better positioned when conditions tighten further.

Finally, RXO and Robinson’s results point to a harsh truth: the next phase of the market will reward execution, not optimism. The easy money from previous upcycles is unlikely to return in the same form.

The publication As the market turns, broker stress tests are already underway appeared first FreightWaves.