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Amazon (AMZN) He has done all the right things this quarter. In short, AMZN hasn’t had any earnings problems this quarter. But he did have one price tag problem
Amazon posted a net win in the earnings report. A clean top-line pace and its fastest AWS growth in 13 quarters is usually cause for celebration. However, surprisingly, the reaction of the markets was incredibly different.
Shares fell as much as 9% on Friday, February 6. Reuters reported.
Why is this? Well, investors are looking at the performance profile of a 200 billion dollars Investment plan for the year 2026.
Bank of America’s takeout goes straight to the point.
BofA reiterated a buy rating with a price target of $275, TheFly reported. Analysts also said the spending was not a show of strength but a necessary cost to stay ahead AI and cloud
CEO of Amazon Andy Jassyhis own language was equally direct.
Amazon’s latest earnings win takes a costly turn. Photo by Bloomberg at Getty Images ·Photo by Bloomberg at Getty Images
Once again, Amazon’s performance in the fourth quarter met expectations, declaring the type of fundamental which were necessary to calm the tape.
Operating income:$25.0 million (or 27.4 million dollarsexcluding one-off charges)
Net income:21.2 million dollars, $1.95 by diluted share
AWS Sales:35.6 million dollarsup 24% year after year
One thing I find remarkable, after several years covering Amazon, is how important AWS is becoming to Amazon.
AWS is still Amazon’s bread and butter; AWS operating income it was $12.5 million in the fourth quarter.
BofA’s framing fits this mix of benefits. Analysts noted that AWS growth beat expectations and accelerated quarter-over-quarter as more capacity came online.
Here’s the line that explains why investors immediately went from “nice quarter” to “try it.”
Free cash flow:11.2 million dollarsdown from 38.2 million dollars a year before
Operating cash flow:139.5 million dollars20% more
What is interesting is that Amazon considers this problem as a strategy for the future.
That’s why the $200 million capex target is hitting hard. This is not to say that Amazon has increased spending in this area for the first time.
Given its size, Amazon’s capital spending plan came as no surprise. However, the market reaction was due to one important fact: it comes at a critical time in the AI debate.
The market is currently debating whether hyperscalers are transforming from “asset-light” platforms to capital heavy operators
More tech stocks:
In these circumstances, any slight stumble can have a big impact.
A Reuters report is intriguing in that sense. The combined AI-related investment plans of major tech companies are in a very healthy state $600 million or more in 2026, increasing investor anxiety. When will all refunds arrive?
The BofA note gives me the clearest logic of “why this might work”, and if I were a day trader, that would be the best way to understand what capex means.
from Amazon 200 million dollars The capex outlook is excellent, even considering what the overall industry is doing. The figure of the dwarfs Wall Streetis approximately $148 million expectation.
However, BofA believes this figure is necessary to compete effectively in a crowded market.
BofA sees the figure as a warning sign that Amazon is targeting its competitors.
The acceleration in AWS demand is real, and that’s what Amazon is targeting. It can be enabled immediate monetization of capacityleading to a possible acceleration of growth.
BofA also points to growth in the AWS portfolio 40% above revenue growthwhich is basically bullish demand pull-forward.
This is the bet on a line: capex now, billable capacity next, and an AWS growth curve that maintains a positive trajectory.
from Amazon 1st quarter of 2026 outlook sets some limits around forecasts.
BofA notes that profit guidance was below Street expectations, with stress from global pricing investments, lower FBA rates and approx. 1 billion dollars in higher annual costs of Project Leo.
This is the short-term compensation. Amazon is asking investors to accept more volatility nowin exchange for the opportunity to own the “AI infrastructure + cloud” composition machine in the future.
The demand for AI exists. However, the execution has limitations.
AWS is up against it delays in connection to the electricity grid in Europe, according to Reuterswhich can slow down the process of bringing data centers online. This bottleneck becomes more significant as the scale of capital expenditure increases.
And Amazon still risks bad press outside of the cloud. For example, Germany’s cartel office moved to limit some price-control practices in the market, and Reuters has also reported on a 309 million dollars Clearance of US returns.
Separately, Amazon is cutting back 16,000 business jobs as it increases efficiency and leans more towards AI, Reuters reports.
None of this is derailing demand for AWS. But things add up to the “2026 is a year of execution” narrative.
Now, let’s wrap up and see what you need to do as an investor before the next revaluation. Here’s the quarter-by-quarter data.
AWS Growth + Backlog: Is the lag gap still big enough to make the capacity ramp worthwhile?
Capex efficiency: Does the additional spend quickly turn into billable capacity or is it stuck behind the limits?
FCF route: Investors can tolerate lousy optics, but equity returns are the “engine” of the market.
Amazon’s fourth quarter ticked all the boxes. The $200 million plan ensures that future chapters won’t graduate from growth alone.
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