itstargetnews
This problem has been percolating for some time.
What turns out to be underground lurks beneath the surface. It may not be detectable.
except those Follow Congress close.
But the issue has taken center stage since the House suffered a serious setback last week in its attempt to avert a government shutdown.
Trump vows deep spending cuts, dozens of House members rally in support of Afghanistan visa plan
The United States Capitol Building in Washington, DC, on February 13, 2024. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
That is to say:
Congress is scrambling to consider a staggering 1,500-page spending bill. A narrow 116-page bill, which President-elect Trump supported, was subsequently defeated. Things got worse when the House commandeered just under 174 years for a Trump-backed bill and 38 Republicans voted against it. The situation became even more dire when the House actually voted to avert a holiday government shutdown, but more Democrats (196) than Republicans (170) passed the bill. Thirty-four Republicans voted against it.
That’s probably the case House Speaker Mike JohnsonWhen the new Congress convenes at noon ET on January 3, Louisiana Republicans may be faced with immediately winning the speakership. Congressional experts know Johnson could be in trouble once his slim House majority comes into focus weeks after the November election. It could turn into a full-blown crisis for Johnson and House Republicans when the speaker’s vote begins next Friday just after 1 p.m. ET.
Johnson is left scarred by last week’s government funding for Donnybrook. There are anywhere from four to 10 Republicans who could oppose Johnson in the speaker’s race.
When the new Congress convenes on January 3, Mike Johnson will likely have a hard time winning the speaker’s gavel. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Here’s the math:
There are currently 434 members in the House of Representatives, one of whom is vacant. This is thanks to my ex Rep. Matt Gaetz,R-Fla. He resigned because of this Congress a few weeks ago. Although Gates won re-election in November, his resignation letter read in the House of Representatives indicated that he does not plan to serve in the new Congress that begins in January.
Here’s the breakdown at the start of Congress: 219 Republicans to 214 Democrats.
Trump’s pick for national security adviser, Rep. Michael WalzFlorida Republicans remain in the House for now. So did New York Rep. Elise Stefanik. Trump appointed her as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. This is subject to Senate confirmation – likely in late January or early February. Once Waltz and Stefanik resign, the Republican majority will be reduced to 217-214.
But the Jan. 3 speakership election poses special challenges. This is Johnson’s or anyone else’s bar: The Speaker of the House must win an absolute majority of all members who voted for someone. In other words, the person with the most votes does not win. That’s what happened repeatedly to former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., when he regularly defeated the House minority in the polls in the January 2023 election for speaker of the current Congress. Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. appropriate threshold.
House Speaker Mike Johnson is scarred by recent government funding for Donnybrook. (Getty)
More on that later.
Let’s do the math for Mike Johnson. If there were 219 Republicans, 4 of whom voted for someone other than him, and all Democrats voted for Jeffries, the vote count would be 215 to 214. But there are no speakers. No one gets an absolute majority of all votes cast for someone. If all 434 members vote, the magic number is 218.
Under the rules, this would paralyze the House. The House absolutely and unequivocally can do nothing until it elects a Speaker. period.
The House of Representatives cannot swear in members. Technically, they are still elected representatives. Only after the Speaker is elected by the House of Representatives can the Speaker be sworn in in turn.
The House, of course, cannot pass legislation. It cannot form a committee. It remains in a state of parliamentary paralysis until a speaker is elected.
Now, I hope you’ll sit down and listen to the next part.
This also means that the House of Representatives cannot certify the Electoral College results, Making Trump January 6, the 47th President of the United States.
The House absolutely and unequivocally can do nothing until it elects a Speaker. period. (Valerie Plesch/Photo Alliance, Getty Images)
Failure to elect a speaker forces the House to vote over and over…
It’s over… it’s over…
Until it finally touches someone.
Two years ago, McCarthy’s election burned 15 votes in five days.
After lawmakers ousted McCarthy in October 2023, the House was plunged into a three-week congressional cryogenic freeze. Two candidates for speaker — House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-Louisiana, and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minnesota — were eliminated. . – There’s another candidate on the scene: Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.
So you see the problem.
Consider that before last year, the House had never held a second-round vote to choose a speaker since Rep. Frederick Gillett, R-Mass., in 1923.
In 1849, the House of Representatives voted 63 times to select Democratic Representative Howell Cobb of Georgia.
But that’s nothing. The longest speaker election lasted two months, with the House electing Massachusetts Republican Nathaniel Banks as speaker on the 133rd vote in 1856.
Therefore, anything that extends this event into conflict with January 6, the legal date for certifying the election results and now one of the most ignominious days in American history, is dangerous.
Messy speaker battle threatens to delay 2024 certification, Johnson allies urge Trump to intervene
Without the Speaker, the House of Representatives cannot certify the Electoral College results, and Trump will become the 47th President of the United States on January 6. (AP/J. Scott Applewhite)
To be clear: There is no dispute that Trump won the election. The Capitol is not expected to riot again like it did four years ago. But failing to certify the Electoral College on the day it is scheduled to be completed — especially after the experience of 2021 — is simply playing with fire. This situation would once again expose another unprecedented fragility in the fragile American political system.
On January 6, the House and Senate are expected to convene a joint session of Congress to tabulate and certify the electoral votes. Any dispute over a state’s slate of electoral votes forces separate debates and votes in the House and Senate on those results. The election is not final until the joint session ends and the Vice President (in this case, Kamala Harris) declares the winner in her capacity as President of the Senate.
Congress is not required to certify the Electoral College on January 6. There’s actually some leeway to wrap things up. In 2021, the Electoral College system will not be certified until approximately 3:52 a.m. on January 7. This will only become a big problem if this continues until noon on January 20th. At that time, the Constitution provided that the president-elect would preside over the Electoral College elections. Oath of office.
What happens if the Electoral College is not decided by January 20? Well, President Biden is done. So he left. Same goes for Harris. Next in the line of presidential succession is the Speaker of the House of Representatives. Well, there are no speakers. So who becomes president?
On January 6, the House and Senate are expected to convene a joint session of Congress to tabulate and certify the electoral votes. (Getty Images)
Well, at this time there is a president pro tempore of the Senate who is the most senior member of the majority party. He or she is fourth in line to the presidency. Currently, the interim president is Washington State Democratic Senator Patty Murray. But Republicans claimed control of the House in early January. Unlike the House, if it is blocked by the speaker, Senate is functioning. That means 91-year-old Iowa Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley will become Senate president pro tempore. Grassley has served in the Senate since 1981.
If the House is still wasting time trying to elect a speaker on January 20, Grassley will likely become “acting president.”
I write “may” because this touches on some serious, extra-Constitutional territory. These are unprecedented scenarios. Never in American political experience has there been a foreign land.
Click here to get the Fox News app
It all depends on Mike Johnson – or, frankly, someone else – getting the speaker’s vote done quickly on January 3rd. Any interregnum like the past two speaker elections begins to establish challenging historical precedents.
But frankly, it’s unclear whether the House can avoid such surprises.
It’s about math. Then again, balancing the balance in Parliament is tenuous at best.
